Inactive Hurricane Seasons Could Bring More Hurricane Rapid Intensification Near the U.S., NOAA Study says

Inactive hurricane seasons may come with more "close to home" rapid intensification cycles, according to a new NOAA study.

NOAA hurricane expert Jim Kossin found that inactive seasons typically have less wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Water temperatures were also at least as warm as in active hurricane seasons, if not warmer. 

"Kossin found that during the [last] quiet period, a major hurricane near the U.S. coast was 3-6 times more likely to intensify by 15 knots within 6 hours than it was during the active periods," according to NOAA.

Rapid intensification remains one of nature's hardest cycles to predict, as well as one of the biggest threats to life and property. 

The Atlantic has historically had upward and downward swings in hurricane activity that last decades, a cycle that is called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). It is currently thought that hurricane activity will wane somewhat for a few years to come as we enter a quiet period.