The study, "Anthropogenic Influences on Major Tropical Cyclone Events," will be published November 15 in the journal Nature. To reach their conclusions Berkeley Lab researchers Christina Patricola and Michael Wehner modeled 15 historical tropical cyclones, or hurricanes, as they are called in the Atlantic, and simulated them in various past and projected future climate scenarios. The purpose of the study was to examine how warming caused by human activities may have impacted these storms and could affect similar storms in the future.
"We're already starting to see anthropogenic factors influencing tropical cyclone rainfall," said Patricola, a scientist in Berkeley Lab's Earth and Environmental Sciences Area and lead author of the study. "And our simulations strongly indicate that as time goes on we can expect to see even greater increases in rainfall."
Patricola chose 15 tropical cyclones that have occurred over the last decade across the globe -- including the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans -- and ran high-resolution climate simulations of those storms in different scenarios, varying factors such as air and ocean temperatures, humidity, and greenhouse gas concentrations. "It is difficult to unravel how climate change may be influencing tropical cyclones using observations alone because records before the satellite-era are incomplete and natural variability in tropical cyclones is large," she said.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181114132019.htm
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