Tropical Storm Karen has an uncertain, strange future ahead, and one possibility is a loopy track eerily reminiscent of Hurricane Jeanne, one of the big hurricanes of 2004.
Karen is currently gliding northward, but its forward speed is expected to come to a halt late this week.This can happen when large-scale features such as the Bermuda-Azores high weaken, leaving the storm without any appreciable steering winds for a period of time.
Stalled tropical cyclones with weak steering winds are among the most difficult scenarios for computer models to forecast correctly.
Even with less hostile shearing winds and warm ocean water, Karen could succumb to dry air and fizzle in or near the Bermuda Triangle.
For now, Karen is expected to begin moving west this weekend as high pressure responsible for a prolonged early-fall heat wave rebuilds over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic Ocean and becomes the system's steering wheel.
But that doesn't mean it would be able to make the entire journey west toward the Bahamas or Southeast U.S. without falling apart.
The bottom line is that it's too soon to determine the path and intensity of Karen.
In September 2004, Tropical Storm Jeanne moved through the Caribbean. Its slow movement caused catastrophic flooding and landslides in Haiti and killed more than 3,000 people.
Hobbled by land interaction with Hispañiola, Jeanne temporarily lost its atmospheric steering wheel.
This was due largely to Hurricane Ivan, which made landfall along the northern Gulf Coast and eroded Jeanne's steering high pressure to its north.
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