Tropical Depression Karen will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands early this week, but it's too soon to know if it will eventually affect any other land areas, including the mainland United States.
Karen is centered more than 100 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and is moving north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph), especially in gusts, are expected in these areas by early Tuesday morning. Winds could be stronger on the windward sides of hills and mountains.Karen is forecast to track northward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, where heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds can be expected Tuesday into Wednesday. No significant intensification is expected since Karen is battling wind shear and dry air.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally, up to 8 inches) are possible in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.
The rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides in parts of those islands, particularly in mountainous terrain. A flash flood watch has been issued by the National Weather Service for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The bottom line is that the forecast for Karen remains highly uncertain beyond late this week. It's too early to know whether Karen could eventually affect the mainland United States or the Bahamas late in the weekend or early next week.
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