Is That a Tornado? Scud Clouds, Wall Clouds, Gustnadoes and Other Scary Clouds That Look Like the Real Thing

With the Ground?

While many tornadoes begin as funnel clouds, they are are not classified the same as tornadoes. Once the funnel makes contact with the ground as one continuous column, then it is reported as a tornado. Still, meteorologists are interested in funnel cloud reports since the possibility exists that the funnel could extend to the ground into a tornado, and subsequently produce tornado damage. Again, the funnel cloud must exhibit rotation. The funnel must look like it is spinning in the air.

If It's Not a Tornado, Then What Is It?

Both severe and non-severe thunderstorms can produce a number of faux tornadoes. The most frequent tornado look-alike is the scud cloud. Scud clouds are fragments of clouds that are unattached to and below a layer of higher clouds, like cumulonimbus clouds. Scud clouds are usually generated along the outflow, or gust front of a thunderstorm, where rain-cooled air clashes with warmer air ahead of the thunderstorm. When viewed at particular angles, the lighting within the thunderstorm and the perspective of the scud against the cumulonimbus cloud may give the appearance of a funnel cloud or a tornado. The key is to look for rotation. Scud clouds do not rotate.

Wall clouds are ominous features that extend down from the base of cumulonimbus clouds. There is no precipitation beneath them, and they form where the thunderstorm's updraft, or inflow, enters the cloud. Wind shear -- rapid change of wind direction and speed -- from the ground to the top of the cumulonimbus cloud causes the wall cloud to rotate. Funnel clouds and tornadoes extend down from the wall cloud.

Tail clouds are tubular clouds that can extend from a wall cloud. Tail clouds are an extension of the air flowing into the updraft and wall cloud. Depending on the viewer's perspective, the tail cloud may resemble a tornado. Closer inspection will reveal that it is not.

Gustnadoes are weak, short-lived vortices that appear as temporary dust whirls ahead of a thunderstorm. They usually develop along the thunderstorm's gust front, where the rain-cooled air slams into warmer air ahead of the thunderstorm. While the spinning vortex of a gustnado appears to extend from the ground to the sky, the column is not connected to nor has it developed from the cloud. Therefore, the vortex is not a tornado.

Roll clouds are relatively rare, low-level, horizontal clouds that resemble rotating tubes. Roll clouds develop along a thunderstorm's outflow boundary. Wind shearfrom the ground to the top of the cumulonimbus cloud causes the roll cloud to rotate. Although they are associated with thunderstorms, they are completely detached from the cumulonimbus cloud and do not make contact with the ground.

http://www.weather.com/safety/tornadoes/thats-not-a-tornado-20130307

Tornado Debris: As Seen By Radar

One difficult challenge for a severe weather forecaster is the potential for tornadoes along a line of thunderstorms. These spin-ups can be short-lived, lasting only a few minutes. Such was the case in Harveyville, Kan. on Feb. 28, 2012.

The first image below shows conventional radar reflectivity (left) and storm-relative velocity (right) at 8:57 pm on Feb. 28. A line of severe thunderstorms was pushing through northeast Kansas that evening. In the storm-relative velocity image (right), there is no sign of a tight tornadic circulation.

Base reflectivity (left) and storm-relative velocity (right) near Harveyville, Kan. at 8:57 pm CT, Feb. 28, 2012. Harveyville, is underlined in yellow in both images. Images courtesy: NWS-Topeka, Kan.

Unfortunately for the city of Harveyville, this changed in a matter of minutes. A circulation tightened up along the squall line as it moved into Harveyville, as you can see in the storm-relative velocity image below.

Storm-relative velocity (right) near Harveyville, Kan. at 9:02 pm CT, Feb. 28, 2012. Tornadic circulation shown by red circle near Harveyville. Image courtesy: NWS-Topeka, Kan.

The very next radar "volume scan" to come in four minutes later showed what is referred to as atornado debris signature (TDS) in the dual-polarization data. This is circled in red in the image below at right.

What the dual-polarization radar is picking up below in the "correlation coefficient" or CC product is the presence of irregularly-shaped targets oriented randomly. Translation: tornado debris lofted after the tornado hit Harveyville.

Storm-relative velocity (left) and dual-polarization "correlation coefficient" (right) northeast of Harveyville, Kan. at 9:06 pm CT, Feb. 28, 2012. The Images courtesy: NWS-Topeka, Kan.

Note the storm-relative velocity image above does not show nearly the strong couplet the earlier image did.

In post-analysis, the National Weather Service in Topeka concluded the Harveyville tornado,rated EF2 on the Enhanced-Fujita scale, was only on the ground for a total of four minutes, first touching down only 1 mile southwest of Harveyville...only 1 minute before hitting the town.

In this case, dual-polarization radar confirmed the presence of tornadic debris.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/tornado-debris-radar_2012-03-08?page=2

After the Storm: Handling Insurance

Dealing with the aftermath of a major storm can be confusing and stressful, especially if your home is damaged. However, taking the right steps can make things a lot easier.

Chrissy B., who lives in New York State, experienced this first hand when an 80 foot pine tree in her neighbor's yard fell on her roof during Storm Sandy. She said it was around 7:30 in the evening when she heard a horrific wind and a loud crack, and then the tree hit her roof over the master bedroom. She could see the branches of the tree whipping back and forth through the master bathroom window, and she retreated to her basement where she spent the rest of the night.

She pulled out her policy and called her insurance provider, Nationwide, first thing the next morning, and was pleased that she was quickly speaking with a customer service representative. She described the situation to them, then after taking pictures of the damage, took her animals and went to stay at a friend's house.

She called a tree removal service provider to remove the tree from her roof, and was told by the tree service that she would have to wait 10 days for them to come to her property. The insurance representative handling her claim had kept in touch with her and, after learning of the potential 10 day delay, contacted another tree service, who arrived within 4 days of the storm. The tree service removed the tree from her roof, and cleared the remainder of the tree and the debris from her yard. Her Nationwide adjuster cut a check directly to the tree service, simplifying the payment process for Chrissy.

Perhaps the one good thing to come out of the storm, according to Chrissy, was watching her neighbors get together to help each other. She was impressed by the community spirit she saw, how people were willing to lend each other a hand in any way they could.

Would you know what to do when faced with a situation like Chrissy's? Nationwide Insurance has the following tips for handling the aftermath of damage from an incident like a major storm. Note that these tips are general in nature and not specific to Nationwide policies or Nationwide's claims processes. Always refer to your insurance policy and company for specific procedures if you may have a potential claim.

1. Call your insurance company. After you file a police or fire report (if required) , contact your insurance agent or company’s claims department. Your policy will likely require you to do so within a certain amount of time after the loss. When you call, have all of the details of the incident, plus your policy number.
2. Complete a claims form with your agent. This form includes all the details of the incident. Be thorough – note what was damaged, when and how. For smaller claims, filing a claims report should suffice. For larger losses, your agent may send an adjuster to inspect the damage.
3. Document the damages. Before you begin cleanup, photograph or record the damage and include the images with your claim. It’s a good idea to visually document your home and belongings before a loss, so you have “before” and “after” images when filing a claim.
4. Make temporary repairs so your home is safe and livable. While you’re waiting for your claim to be processed, you may make temporary repairs. But review your policy for guidelines about what’s covered and be sure to save your repair receipts. Don’t start permanent, major repairs or renovations until your claim is complete and your compensation is confirmed.
5. If you have to move temporarily, save your receipts. If the damage to your residence is so extensive that you must relocate for a while, your policy may help cover those costs. Save hotel and restaurant receipts – and discuss with your agent how to submit them for reimbursement.
6. Make yourself available. Be reachable and ready to talk with your insurance agent and claims adjuster after you file a claim. The faster you can answer questions and provide necessary information, the faster your claim may be able to be processed.

http://www.weather.com/safety/homesafety/hurricane-interview-insurance-20130131

Tornado Season, Watches, & Warnings

In the United States, "tornado season" is generally in the spring. Tornadoes are more prevalent from April through July, with May and June being the peak months. But like thunderstorms, tornadoes can form any time of the year.

The area in which tornadoes are most prevalent is known as "tornado alley," typically defined the region from Texas north to Nebraska. But, of course, tornadoes can and do occur in every state in the country.

For accurate and timely storm updates in your area, watch The Weather Channel, check for severe weather alerts, listen to NOAA Weather Radio, or get free severe weather alerts on your phone and in your email from The Weather Channel. 

Slideshow: Tornado and severe thunderstorm watches and warnings

Tornado Watches and Warnings
Two key alerts relate specifically to tornado conditions.

Tornado Watch - Conditions are conducive to the development of tornadoes in and close to the watch area.

Tornado Warning - A tornado has actually been sighted by spotters or indicated on radar and is occurring or imminent in the warning area.

In addition, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes, or cause damage of their own from wind gusts of 58 mph or greater and/or hail 3/4-inch in diameter or larger.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Conditions are conducive to the development of severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - A severe thunderstorm has actually been observed by spotters or indicated on radar, and is occurring or imminent in the warning area.

While tornadoes can still occur without a watch or warning being in effect, advances in the science and technology have greatly increased the ability of meteorologists to provide advance notice of them.

It is difficult to generalize the clues that portend tornadoes, and even potentially dangerous, because people looking for given conditions may be led to a false sense of security when these conditions are not present.

Tornado Facts

A tornado may be in close proximity to sunshine, or it may be totally enshrouded in heavy rain.

Sometimes the air before a twister hits is eerily calm; in other cases strong, gusty winds are followed by a tornado.

Large hail and tornadoes can be produced by the same thunderstorm. However, many hailstorms are not accompanied by tornadoes, and vice versa.

While many tornadoes move from a southwest direction, they can also travel from other directions such as west or northwest.

Twisters can take a variety of not only sizes but also shapes: from the traditional Wizard-of-Oz-like funnel, to snake-like "multiple vortices," from a drawn-out rope shape to a wide, churning, "smoky" appearance.

The sound of a tornado has been likened to that of a freight train or a jet engine, but there is no guarantee that you will hear such a noise before it's too late.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/wxready/articles/id-55

Night Tornadoes Particularly Deadly

The only thing more frightening than the sight and sound of a tornado approaching is one that strikes while you're asleep. It comes in the middle of the night, enveloping your neighborhood with dangerous winds, swirling debris, and possibly deadly consequences. 

Nocturnal tornadoes, as they are called, are like nightmares that have come to life. They strike under the cover of darkness and are often among the most deadly weather phenomenon. 

"Nocturnal tornadoes are particularly dangerous for several reasons," says Tornado Expert Dr. Greg Forbes (find him on Facebook). "One is that it’s nearly impossible to see the tornado coming, so getting and heeding warnings is crucial. Another is that people are often asleep and caught unaware. People are usually at home, often in structures that are not as sturdy as their place of work. Mobile homes are particularly vulnerable." 

As spring severe weather season kicks into high gear, night tornadoes are a great concern. 

According to a study done by Northern Illinois University, the fatality rate from nocturnal tornadoes has actually increased in the past century, while the fatality rate from daytime tornadoes has decreased. Researchers found that tornadoes during the overnight period are 2.5 times more likely to kill as those occuring during the daytime hours. 

Nocturnal tornadoes catch people when they are more vulnerable and not taking precautionary measures like they do when they're awake. 

"There have been many infamous nocturnal tornadoes," according to Dr. Forbes. "One struck Evansville, Ind., on Nov 6, 2005, nearly all of the fatalities in mobile homes. Deadly nocturnal tornadoes struck Florida on Feb 23, 1998, and Feb 2, 2007." 

Other Deadly Nocturnal Tornadoes 

- Edgewater, Ala.: April 8, 1998 / 32 fatalities 
- Riegelwood, N.C.: November 15, 2005 / 8 fatalities 
- Greensburg, Kan.: May 4, 2007 / 10 fatalities 
- Newbern, Tenn.: April 2, 2006 / 16 fatalities 

Dr. Forbes says the key to any severe weather event is to plan ahead. 

"Be sure you know your safe location ahead of time so you can get there quickly, even if you have to get there in the middle of the night. Keep flashlights handy. Have a NOAA Weather Radio or subscribe to Notify! as a way to get tornado warnings at night." 


http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/nocturnal-tornadoes_2011-04-04

Tornado Warning False Alarms: National Weather Service Upgrades to Impact-Based Warning System

       Roughly three out of every four tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service are false alarms. No, that's not a misprint. Only one in four tornado warnings contain a verified confirmed tornado within the warned area during the time of the warning. But that doesn't mean you should just ignore them.

       On average, about 70 percent of all confirmed tornadoes occur in an active tornado-warned area. In other words, seven out of 10 confirmed tornadoes were covered by a tornado warning at the time. The success rate has doubled since the mid-1980s, thanks to Doppler radar, technology and meteorologists' better understanding of tornadic environments. 

       Prior to the April 3-4, 1974 Superoutbreak, warnings were typically issued only after a tornado was already confirmed. Today, tornado warning lead time —the time from the warning is issued to the time the tornado occurs — averages around 15 minutes. There is no telling how many lives have been saved over the past few decades thanks to advance notice. The bottom line: Meteorologists detect tornadoes when they actually occur quite well. So what's causing all the false alarms?

Striking the Balance

There's a delicate balance between trying to detect and warn for every single tornado while keeping the number of false alarms low. The more tornado warnings you issue, the higher chance of a false alarm, which increases public complacency.

"We want to err on the side of caution. It's not an option to miss one," said Chad Omitt, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service forecast office in Topeka, Kan. "We do the best we can to catch every tornado before it happens."

On the other hand, less warnings would, in theory, lessen false alarms.

"What risks are we willing to swallow in order to take a step back and not go after every weak tornado?" asked Omitt. "That's a conversation we have not yet had with emergency managers, elected officials and the media."

"A lot of these (weak, particularly EF0) tornadoes may be on the ground for a minute or two and do not kill." We'll come back to that point later.

Radar's Limitations

While Doppler radar is a linchpin of severe warning operations today, the basic fact that a radar beam's height increases with distance from the radar means it cannot detect a tornadic circulation at the ground. 

(Note: In rare cases, a debris-ball signature, explained in the video at the right, or tornado debris signature can indirectly indicate the presence of a tornado).

For example, if a suspected storm is 100 nautical miles from the radar, the center of the radar beam is over 12,000 feet above the surface.

Strong rotation aloft often does not mean a tornado is either in progress or will form. In general, only 20-25 percent of rotating supercells produce tornadoes.

For this reason, trained storm spotters and chasers remain vital, confirming a tornado is happening, or letting forecasters know the rotation is still aloft.

"The deployment of additional gap-filling radars between the current NWS sites is something that could happen as a cooperative effort between various levels of government and possibly the private sector, and help reduce the false alarm threat in the future," says severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes.

Not As Easy As You Think 

Our knowledge of the large-scale ingredients in place — wind shear, moisture, instability — during days with numerous tornadoes, as opposed to days spawning severe thunderstorms with hail and high winds, is also steadily improving.

It is easier for a forecaster to verify a tornado warning for a supercell on days with a potential for long-track, violent tornadoes. Tornado warning performance and lead times are higher on these volatile days, according to a 2008 study by Kelly Keene, Paul Schlatter, Jack Hales and Harold Brooks of NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center.

You should pay particularly close attention to tornado watches and warnings on those volatile days where you may hear the The Weather Channel, weather.com, the National Weather Service, and local media mention the phrase tornado outbreak.

Thankfully, there are very few days like that each year. The majority of severe weather days are more marginal for tornadoes. Among the challenges forecasters face in these events are:

• Nighttime tornadoes - Unless the tornado is illuminated by lightning, or power flashes are seen, or damage has already happened, these are harder to verify.
• Short-lived tornadoes embedded in squall lines may quickly form, then dissipate, and their signatures may be less pronounced.
• Tornadoes in squall lines or high-precipitation supercells may be obscured by rain, and, therefore, hard to identify as tornadoes.
• Spotter networks - You'll have plenty of spotters in, say, Oklahoma, but there are far less in sparsely-populated areas.
• Time of year - Outside of the core severe weather months during spring and early summer, the environments are more marginal, the public is less aware, and  perhaps fewer spotters available.

"We're often dealing with imperfect information," said Omitt. "We try to capture all tornadoes as best as we can before they happen with the tools we have."

Combine that with a forecaster sometimes monitoring multiple storms simultaneously, and you can understand the potential to issue a few more tornado warnings out of caution in borderline, more uncertain cases.

More Dire Warnings

Imagine a winter storm warning without giving forecast snowfall totals or a flood warning without giving river crest information. For years, all tornado warnings were essentially the same.

The fact is not all tornado threats are equal.

In the National Weather Service's central region, 97 percent of tornado fatalities from 2008-2012 were caused by only 13 percent of all tornadoes, those rated EF2 or stronger on the Enhanced-Fujita scale. 

The National Weather Service is hoping the expansion of impact-based warnings (IBW) to include 44 offices from Montana to Virginia to Texas in 2014 helps delineate high-impact events — like Moore, Okla., and Joplin, Mo., for example — from the vast majority of weaker tornadoes that are less likely to prove fatal.

"We have a very formal, rigid warning process," said Omitt. "We want to tell the public what we know when we know it in an easier-to-find format."

 http://www.weather.com/safety/tornadoes/tornado-warning-false-alarms-impact-based-warnings-20140418

A Warm Winter in Alaska

                                    

In contrast to much of the contiguous U.S., the National Weather Service (NWS) in Alaska noted in a post this week that Alaska has enjoyed its third warmest ‘winter’ on record for 2013-2014. The period of time they are calling ‘winter’ is for the six months of October 2013 through March 2014. Here are a few details.

According to the NWS statement, statewide it was the 3rd warmest October-March period for Alaska surpassed only by the October-March periods of 2000-2001 and 2002-2003. For some sites it was actually the warmest such period on record. This was the case for Barrow, Kotzebue, McGrath, and Cold Bay. All of the state was much milder than normal except for the Southeastern Panhandle where temperatures were normal to slightly below normal.

For Cold Bay, the last month with a below normal than average temperature was May 2013. For Barrow, Kotzebue, and McGrath, September 2013 was the last such.

The mild winter in Alaska is in sharp contrast to that in the eastern portions of the contiguous U.S. where Marquette, Michigan just observed a -5°F temperature on April 16th: its coldest such reading for so late in the season and also the latest date for a zero or below temperature ever observed. As of April 17th some 28” of snow still lies on the ground (18.3” of which fell in the past four days). Additionally, Lake Superior is clogged by the most ice (34% coverage) for this time so late in the season since accurate measurements of such began in 1973.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=266

Antarctica Was Once As Warm As California, Florida: Study

Today it's one of the coldest places on Earth, but millions of years ago parts of the Antarctic region had a climate that Californians and Floridians would find familiar, according to a study released this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

During the Eocene epoch, about 40 to 50 million years ago, when atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were much higher than today's, temperatures in parts of Antarctica rose as high as 63 degrees Fahrenheit, and averaged about 57 degrees Fahrenheit.

That's about the same as temperatures off the coast of California today, a far cry from the bitter cold found in the present-day Antarctic interior, where temperatures stay well below zero degrees Fahrenheit and even dropped to a record -135.8 degrees Fahrenheit last year.

Temperatures were even higher during the Eeocene in the southern Pacific Ocean near Antarctica, the study found, reaching about 72 degrees Fahrenheit, as warm as the waters off the coast of Florida today.

These findings, which shed new light on just how warm Earth's polar regions can become and the risks of rising global sea levels, come from a newly developed method for measuring ancient temperatures in the fossil record.

Using fossil bivalve shells collected by study co-author Linda Ivany on Seymour Island, a small island off the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, the scientists who led the study measured the shells' concentrations of a pair of isotopes -- carbon-13 and oxygen-18 -- to determine the climate in which they grew.

Next, the scientists combined the isotope measurements with readings from geo-thermometers and computer model simulations of the Antarctic climate. They call this new technique "carbonate clumped isotope thermometry."

Perhaps what is most interesting for the average reader today is the insight the study provides into how dramatically Earth's climate can change, and how sensitive it is to increases and decreases in concentrations of greenhouse gases (like carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere.

"By measuring past temperatures in different parts of Antarctica, this study gives us a clearer perspective of just how warm Antarctica was when the Earth’s atmosphere contained much more CO2 than it does today," said Yale University scientist Peter M.J. Douglas, the study's lead author.

"Quantifying past temperatures helps us understand the sensitivity of the climate system to greenhouse gases, and especially the amplification of global warming in polar regions," added Hagit Affek, also a scientist at Yale and one of the study's co-authors.

"We now know that it was warm across the continent, but also that some parts were considerably warmer than others," noted Douglas. "This provides strong evidence that global warming is especially pronounced close to the Earth's poles.

"Warming in these regions has significant consequences for climate well beyond the high latitudes due to ocean circulation and melting of polar ice that leads to sea level rise."

http://www.wunderground.com/news/antarctica-was-once-warm-california-florida-coasts-study-20140423

Warmest March on Record

Earth Has Its 4th Warmest March on Record; Weekend Severe Weather Outbreak Coming

March 2014 was the globe's 4th warmest March since records began in 1880, according to NOAA'sNational Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. March 2014 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were also the 5th warmest on record. The year-to-date January - March period has been the 7th warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 9th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was the 6th lowest in the 48-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March 2014 in his March 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary.

An El Niño Watch continues 

March 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur by the summer. The April 10 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-April 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 16 of 20 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were +0.2°C from average as of April 21. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. There is currently a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is helping push warm water eastwards towards South America. If this Westerly Wind Burst persists and expands eastwards through early May, the odds of an El Niño event will increase.

 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2669

2014 Strongest-Rated Tornado Activity in U.S. Off To Record Slow Start

                                  

Despite recent tornadoes in Missouri, Texas, Mississippi and North Carolina, among other states, we have set a new record for a lack of stronger tornadoes-to-date in 2014.
Through April 23, not one tornado of EF3 intensity or stronger has been observed anywhere in the U.S., the latest wait for the first such tornado in any year on record dating to 1950, according to the University of Alabama-Huntsville.
March 31, 2002 was the previous record latest date of the season's first F3 or EF3 tornado. The Enhanced-Fujita scale replaced the original Fujita Scale on Feb. 1, 2007.
The last U.S. tornado of EF3 intensity or stronger was during the Nov. 17, 2013 outbreak in the Midwest, making this a five-month stretch without one.

According to statistics compiled by severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (Twitter | Facebook), the period from January through March averaged between eight and nine tornadoes of F/EF3+ intensity in the period 1950-2012.

While we have had several episodes of severe thunderstorms in 2014, we've been fortunate enough to avoid the volatile combination of low-level wind shear (rapidly changing wind direction and speed with height) and strong instability (very warm and humid air near the surface topped by cold, dry air aloft) known to spawn large, destructive tornado outbreaks. 

http://www.wunderground.com/news/record-latest-first-ef3-tornado-2014-20140408

No Tornado Deaths: 2014 Has Longest Fatality-Free Start in 99 Years

Even as we push deeper into the heart of spring tornado season, 2014 has so far completely spared Americans the agony and grief of tornado-related deaths. The year's long early safe streak has put 2014 in rare territory, historically.

The modern era of tornado records began in 1950 with the advent of the storm database maintained by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This year has now gone on longer than any other calendar year in that era without a tornado fatality.

The previous record belonged to 2002, when the year's first killer tornado struck April 21 – an F3 that killed a man in a mobile home in a rural area of Wayne County, Illinois.

Another recent year's long quiet streak ended rather violently. This past Sunday marked the 10th anniversary of 2004's first killer tornado, also an F3 in Illinois. Eight people died on April 20, 2004 when a twister smashed into Utica, Ill., causing a tavern to collapse. The twister was part of an outbreak of 30 tornadoes notable because human and computer forecasts made only hours earlier indicated the atmosphere would not be unstable enough for tornadic activity.

History in the Making?

The slideshow at the bottom of this page shows the top 10 calendar years with the latest date of the first documented tornado death. There are four top 10 lists showing four different eras, reflecting the evolution of tornado documentation as described in tornado historian Tom Grazulis' compendium,Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991:

• The modern era, 1950-present. In his book, Grazulis notes that "serious efforts" to document all tornadoes began in 1953, which was the first full year of tornado watches issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service. The bureau began collecting thorough data in an attempt to determine how well the watches were verifying (i.e., how many watches contained tornadoes).
• Since the "middle period"; 1916-present. Grazulis points out that the government began keeping an official count of tornadoes in 1916, but the effort was not evenly executed in every state.
• Since the "early period"; 1880-present. The efforts of John Park Finley, considered America's first tornado climatologist and first forecaster of severe thunderstorms, resulted in a great advance in the collection of tornado reports beginning in 1880. Grazulis notes, however, that the historical record from 1880-1915 is likely incomplete owing to a relative lack of small-town newspapers in what was then the predominantly poor and rural South, as compared to a more robust newspaper and storm reporting network in the Plains.
• Since the end of the Civil War; 1866-present. Very few tornadoes were reported or recorded in the chaos of the Civil War, so attempting to craft a list any farther back in time than 1866 is futile.

Even including what are likely incomplete historical records from the mid 19th to early 20th centuries, 2014 already ranks among the top 10 years with the longest fatality-free start. It's likely that some of those older years in the record had undocumented tornado deaths, which would move 2014 even higher in the rankings if we had perfect knowledge of what happened back then.

With no tornadoes reported Monday, we now have to go back 99 years to find a calendar year when the first documented tornado death came later in the year – that was 1915, when the first recorded death came on May 5.

Why Has This Year Been Relatively Safe?

Part of the reason for this year's good fortune is the lack of strong tornadoes. It is likely not a coincidence that there have been no EF3 or stronger tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale in 2014 as of April 23, and that's also a record-long wait in the modern era since 1950. Tornadoes in the higher Fujita categories do a disproportionate amount of all damage and cause a large majority of all tornado deaths, historically speaking.

It is likely also true that modern technology – with powerful Doppler radar systems and instant communication – have helped to keep this year's relatively weaker tornadoes from turning deadly.

While we are in impressive company when looking at calendar years – resetting the count at January 1, so to speak – we are nowhere near the longest streak of consecutive days without a killer tornado.

That record was just broken in 2012-13, when a string of 219 consecutive days passed without a killer tornado. That streak ended with the Adairsville, Ga., tornado on Jan. 30, 2013. Like the other streak-ending twisters mentioned above, it rated a 3 – in this case, an EF3.

Currently, the most recent killer tornado is an EF2 that killed one person on Dec. 21, 2013, in Coahoma County, Miss. That means there have been 122 consecutive days without a tornado death through and including April 22, 2014 – 97 days shy of the modern record.

http://www.weather.com/safety/tornadoes/no-tornado-deaths-safety-streak-record-20140420

Winter nor over yet?

                             



 Although it's late April, wintry weather wants to hang on in parts of the nation through the weekend.

Western Snow

A new jet stream dip will push into the West Coast Thursday into Friday and spread snow across the Rockies through the weekend.
First, more snow will fall in the higher elevations of the Cascades and northern Rockies.
By Thursday night and Friday, some much needed snowfall will move into the Sierra Nevada in California. This could impact travel through passes, including Donner Summit (I-80).
Saturday into Sunday, snow will spread through the Wasatch of Utah and into the Colorado Rockies.

Upper Midwest Snow

East of the Rockies, significant snow is possible in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and the U.P. of Michigan Thursday night through Friday. More than six inches of snow is possible in some locations.
Below are the latest minute-by-minute updates from The Weather Channel team of meteorologists, along with National Weather Service offices and posts from social media. The latest updates will appear automatically on top; no need to refresh this page.


 http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-live-updates-snow-ice-latest-20131106

Midweek Severe Threat in Plains

As is typical of spring, the threat of severe weather is ramping up in the nation's midsection. In fact, we are tracking two weather systems that will spawn severe weather over the next five or six days.
The latest details and updates on the first bout of severe storms from Wednesday through Friday are below. In addition, we are closely monitoring the potential for a more widespread severe threat this weekend starting in the Plains.

Wednesday: Scattered severe storms from southeast South Dakota to parts of Nebraska, Kansas, central/western Oklahoma and western Texas. Lack of rich moisture in the atmosphere means these storms will probably take the form of visually spectacular thunderstorms with high cloud bases in the late afternoon and evening. Some of them will probably be rotating supercells with very large hail and damaging winds; some tornadoes are possible, but with the somewhat dry air near the ground, the tornado threat may be tempered somewhat.



Thursday: Isolated to scattered severe storms from far northeast Texas to parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Any that form could spawn large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two.




Friday: Lingering threat of a few severe storms in the coastal Southeast.


 http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-weather-tracker-page

Severe Weather Threat

Heading into Saturday, a strong, upper-level disturbance will travel east from the Pacific into the Rocky Mountains. As it does so, it will pull warm, moist air ahead of it into the central and southern Plains. Warm, moist air is buoyant, and it will easily rise, especially with a few hours of sunshine. This rising air is called atmospheric instability, and it will provide the "fuel" necessary to sustain severe thunderstorms.

By late Saturday and early Sunday, a surface low will develop within the central Plains. Ahead of this low, moist air will continue to stream into the Great Plains from the south. At the same time, faster mid-level winds will blow into the Plains from the west, resulting in wind shear (a change in wind speed and direction with height). Wind shear allows thunderstorms to tilt as they build higher in the sky, and the result is long-lived, particularly strong thunderstorms called supercells.

With enough wind shear and instability, supercell thunderstorms can produce and sustain tornadoes.

As is typical several days in advance, there remains some uncertainty in the exact details. This includes the magnitude and location of the greatest tornado threat each day.

Saturday's Thunderstorm Outlook

• Threat area: Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline (a kind of front that differentiates between moist air to the east and dry air to the west) from northern Texas northward into Oklahoma and Kansas. Regions illustrated in red within the inset map (right) should prepare for damaging winds, hail and possible tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be strong (EF2 or higher rating).
• Cities: Abilene, Texas | Oklahoma City | Wichita, Kan.

Sunday's Thunderstorm Outlook

Sunday's Thunderstorm Outlook

• Threat area: As the surface low pressure system pushes east, more severe thunderstorms will spark up Sunday from central Texas northward into parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas and Missouri. Regions illustrated in red within the inset map (right) should prepare for damaging winds, hail and possible tornadoes.
• Cities: San Antonio, Texas | Dallas-Fort Worth | Oklahoma City, Okla. | Tulsa, Okla. | Kansas City, Mo. | Fort Smith, Ark.

Monday's Thunderstorm Outlook

• Threat area: The storm system will continue to shift slowly east, pushing the severe threat into areas either side of the middle and lower Mississippi Valleys. Regions illustrated in red within the inset map (right) have the greatest chance of seeing severe storms.
• Cities: Jackson, Miss. | Little Rock, Ark. | St. Louis, Mo. | Memphis, Tenn.

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornadoes-severe-weather-saturday-sunday-late-april-20140422

Ocala man forecasts hurricanes

   

 

David Dilley has spent decades building a computerized weather forecast model that he says can predict the volatility of a hurricane season up to four years in advance. Dilley, 68, an Ocala resident who owns and operates Global Weather Oscillations Inc., recently unveiled his computer model concept, which he touts as a one-of-a-kind long-range forecasting tool that relies on weather cycles.The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration uses several short-term weather cycle-type oscillation models — as well as La Nina or El Nino influences — to forecast six months to a year into the future. NOAA does not use weather cycle data to predict hurricanes four years out. Dilley, a former NOAA meteorologist who worked in Boston for two decades, says his models can predict hurricane activity years ahead. He sells his expertise to clients such as insurance agencies. Those companies use the hurricane forecasts before deciding when, or whether, to expand into coastal markets down the road. Dilley said he has gathered decades of weather data that help identify specific weather cycles, which in turn help him predict the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. Dilley says his models have accurately predicted hurricane activity in each of the past five seasons. Using the model, Dilley projects the activity in 11 different Atlantic and Gulf Coast zones. He has found that each of the zones has varying weather cycles — up to about 50 years each. And each zone's cycle has its own smaller weather cycle. Once all of the cycles within cycles are discovered, a pattern for each zone emerges. After analyzing the data, Dilley then projects hurricane and tropical storm probabilities for each of the 11 zones. Dilley said his agency, unlike the major prognosticators, predicted a slow season in 2013 and an active season in 2012. Dilley believes his prediction model, called “Climate Pulse Technology,” proves that weather cycles are the most accurate long-range hurricane forecast tool in the market.

 http://www.ocala.com/article/2013131219767?p=1&tc=pg

Is A Super El Niño Coming That Will Shatter Extreme Weather And Global Temperature Records?

By Joe Romm on March 26, 2014 at 3:27 pm


Signs are increasingly pointing to the formation of an El Niño in the next few months, possibly a very strong one. When combined with the long-term global warming trend, a strong El Niño would mean 2015 is very likely to become the hottest year on record by far.
An El Niño is “characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific,” as NOAA explains. That contrasts with the unusually cold temps in the Equatorial Pacific during a La Niña. Both are associated with extreme weather around the globe. But, as the above chart from NASA shows, El Niños are generally the hottest years on record, since the regional warming adds to the underlying global warming trend. La Niña years tend to be below the global warming trend line.
Because 1998 was an unusually strong “super El Niño,” and because we haven’t had an El Niño since 2010, it can appear as if global warming has slowed — if you cherry-pick a relatively recent start year. But in fact several recent studies have confirmed that planetary warming continues apace everywhere you look.
Remember that 2010, a moderate El Niño, is the hottest year on record so far. And 2010 saw a stunning 20 countries set all-time record highs, including “Asia’s hottest reliably measured temperature of all-time, the remarkable 128.3°F (53.5°C) in Pakistan in May 2010.” Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters said 2010 was “the planet’s most extraordinary year for extreme weather since reliable global upper-air data began in the late 1940s.”
Given that the “Earth’s Rate Of Global Warming Is 400,000 Hiroshima Bombs A Day,” the planet is half a billion Hiroshimas warmer than it was in 2010. So even a moderate El Niño will cause record-setting temperature and weather extremes. But a strong one, let alone a super El Niño, should shatter records.
Peru’s official El Niño commission said last week that they are expecting an El Niño to start as soon as April. Peru tracks this closely because “El Nino threatens to batter the fishmeal industry by scaring away abundant schools of cold-water anchovy.”
To be clear, an El Niño is not a sure thing at this point. Some forecasters put the chances at about 60 percent, but one recent study put the chances at 75 percent.

 The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) doesn’t change the overall warming trend, but it is a short-term modulation, what NASA labels the largest contributor to the “natural dynamical variability” of the climate system. El Niño and La Niña are typically defined as sustained sea surface temperature anomalies (positive and negative respectively) greater than 0.5°C across the central tropical Pacific Ocean. You can read the basics about ENSO here.
One key El Niño indicator is the rapid rise in upper ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific — just what NOAA reported Monday:





When the El Niño forms and then peaks is crucial to whether 2014 or 2015 (or both!) will be the hottest year on record. A 2010 NASA study found “the correlation of 12-month running-mean global temperature and Niño 3.4 index is maximum with global temperature lagging the Niño index by 4 months.”
If we do get an El Niño, and it looks anything like the 1997/1998 one, then 2015 in particular should be the hottest year on record by far.

 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/26/3417812/el-nino-extreme-weather-global-temperature/

Ice Shove: Giant Ice Slabs Invade Great Lakes Shorelines

By: By Jon Erdman

Published: April 16, 2014

          The photo above is not a pile of snow deposited by dump trucks or snowplows. This is an ice shove in Menominee, Mich. photographed on April 13, 2014. According to Fox 11 in Green Bay, the ice shove closed the road to the Menominee lighthouse and caused some minor property damage. Ice shoves were also reported along the western shore of Lake Winnebago in the city of Oshkosh, according to WKOW-TV.

       An ice shove is a rapid push of free-floating lake or sea ice onshore by wind. Strong winds from the same direction over, say, a 12 to 24 hour period, are enough to drive large chunks and plates of ice ashore.

The initial slabs or blocks of ice will slow down momentarily when reaching land, creating a traffic jam of ice piling behind and on top. The result is a massive ice pile often over 10 feet high, surging ashore in a matter of minutes, surrounding and damaging everything in their path, including trees, sod, fences, and homes. 

In some parts of the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Canada, ice shoves are common in the spring as lake ice breaks up, floats, then push ashore. April and May are considered ice shove season along Wisconsin's Lake Winnebago shore.

An impressive string of ice shoves were documented in spring 2013, including a destructive event along the southwest shore of Manitoba's Dauphin Lake on May 10, damaging 27 homes near Ochre Beach. Ice cover over the Great Lakes as of April 15 is the most widespread on record for mid-April, covering over 39 percent of the Great Lakes.

 http://www.wunderground.com/news/ice-shove-menominee-michigan-lake-winnebago-wisconsin-20140416