Warmest March on Record

Earth Has Its 4th Warmest March on Record; Weekend Severe Weather Outbreak Coming

March 2014 was the globe's 4th warmest March since records began in 1880, according to NOAA'sNational Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. March 2014 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were also the 5th warmest on record. The year-to-date January - March period has been the 7th warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 9th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was the 6th lowest in the 48-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March 2014 in his March 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary.

An El Niño Watch continues 

March 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur by the summer. The April 10 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-April 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 16 of 20 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were +0.2°C from average as of April 21. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. There is currently a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is helping push warm water eastwards towards South America. If this Westerly Wind Burst persists and expands eastwards through early May, the odds of an El Niño event will increase.

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