Ocala man forecasts hurricanes

   

 

David Dilley has spent decades building a computerized weather forecast model that he says can predict the volatility of a hurricane season up to four years in advance. Dilley, 68, an Ocala resident who owns and operates Global Weather Oscillations Inc., recently unveiled his computer model concept, which he touts as a one-of-a-kind long-range forecasting tool that relies on weather cycles.The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration uses several short-term weather cycle-type oscillation models — as well as La Nina or El Nino influences — to forecast six months to a year into the future. NOAA does not use weather cycle data to predict hurricanes four years out. Dilley, a former NOAA meteorologist who worked in Boston for two decades, says his models can predict hurricane activity years ahead. He sells his expertise to clients such as insurance agencies. Those companies use the hurricane forecasts before deciding when, or whether, to expand into coastal markets down the road. Dilley said he has gathered decades of weather data that help identify specific weather cycles, which in turn help him predict the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. Dilley says his models have accurately predicted hurricane activity in each of the past five seasons. Using the model, Dilley projects the activity in 11 different Atlantic and Gulf Coast zones. He has found that each of the zones has varying weather cycles — up to about 50 years each. And each zone's cycle has its own smaller weather cycle. Once all of the cycles within cycles are discovered, a pattern for each zone emerges. After analyzing the data, Dilley then projects hurricane and tropical storm probabilities for each of the 11 zones. Dilley said his agency, unlike the major prognosticators, predicted a slow season in 2013 and an active season in 2012. Dilley believes his prediction model, called “Climate Pulse Technology,” proves that weather cycles are the most accurate long-range hurricane forecast tool in the market.

 http://www.ocala.com/article/2013131219767?p=1&tc=pg