Showing posts with label Luis Padilla. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luis Padilla. Show all posts

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Forecasting Thunderstorms

forecasting,thunderstorms

Thunderstorm forecasting is very similar to the forecasting used to predict tornadoes. Three times daily, a severe weather outlook is issued on a nationwide basis indicating whether conditions are either favorable or unfavorable for thunderstorms to develop in specific regions of the United States.
To forecast thunderstorms, meteorologists use a variety of data. Surface and upper air observations are studied to find areas of low level moisture and instability, and to determine how winds aloft might influence storm development.
Satellite imagery is used to help track the movement of weather systems that might generate thunderstorms. Forecasters scan computer model data to help determine where favorable areas for thunderstorm formation might be located further out in time. Radar and satellites are used to track the storms once they do form.
Most thunderstorms pose the threat of heavy downpours. gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Sometimes, however, atmospheric conditions become favorable for particularly dangerous thunderstorms to form. These severe thunderstorms are defined as producing one or more of the following: hail 3/4 of an inch in diameter or greater, wind gusts to 58 mph or more, or a tornado.
Meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, are tasked with monitoring the atmosphere for signs of severe thunderstorms and tornado development. They will issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas where conditions are favorable for the formation of severe storms.
Once a severe thunderstorm has actually been sighted or observed on radar, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued by the local office of the National Weather Service.

Midwest Tornado Outbreak: Death Toll Rises as Officials Get First Real Look at Damage



Death toll rises from Sunday's outbreak:
  • Death toll rises to 8, with 6 of these deaths coming from tornadoes
  • A preliminary rating of EF4 has been given to the tornado that hit New Minden, Ill. (170-190 mph)
  • A preliminary EF4 tornado hit Washington, Ill. (166-200 mph)
  • Preliminary EF2 tornado hit near Coal City, Ill. (111-135 mph)
  • A slew of tornadoes in Indiana, with at least six twisters rated EF2 or stronger
  • At least two tornadoes confirmed in far northern Tennessee
  • EF0 tornado confirmed in Otsego County, Mich. (65-75 mph); northernmost tornado this late in the year for the state
  • EF1 tornado in Butler County, Ky. (105 mph max.)
WASHINGTON, Ill. -- As a powerful tornado bore down on their Illinois farmhouse, Curt Zehr's wife and adult son didn't have time to do anything but scramble into their basement.
Uninjured, the pair looked out moments later to find the house gone. Their home on the outskirts of Washington, Ill., was destroyed Sunday by one of the dozens of tornadoes and intense thunderstorms that swept across the Midwest in a swift-moving line of violent weather that killed at least eight people and unleashed powerful winds that flattened entire neighborhoods, flipped over cars and uprooted trees.
"They saw (the tornado) right there and got in the basement," said a stunned Zehr, pointing to the farm field near the rubble that had been his home.
Washington Mayor Gary Manier estimated that 250 to 500 homes had been damaged or destroyed. It wasn't clear when residents would be allowed to return.
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"Everybody's without power, but some people are without everything," Manier told reporters in the parking lot of a destroyed auto parts store and near a row of flattened homes.
"How people survived is beyond me," he said.
The unusually powerful late-season wave of thunderstorms brought damaging winds and tornadoes to 12 states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and western New York.
Illinois was the hardest hit, with at least six people killed and dozens more injured. Authorities said Monday that two other deaths occurred in Michigan.
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn promised all the assistance the state could provide to victims of what he said were the deadliest November tornadoes in state history.
"We're all in this together," Quinn said.
"Sunday was the second most active severe weather day of 2013, with roughly 500 total reports of wind damage, high winds, tornadoes, and large hail," said weather.com Senior Meteorologist Jon Erdman.
"Damage surveys will be conducted to confirm final tornado counts, but this could be the largest November tornado outbreak in the U.S. in almost eight years."
The governor and others said the search for anybody trapped in the rubble continued, but officials doubted that the death toll would climb. Illinois Emergency Management Agency Director Jonathon Monken said rescuers had just one field left to search in Washington before they can say with confidence that everyone has been accounted for.
tornado outbreak
A boy takes a break from helping comb the rubble of Curt Zehr's home just outside Washington, Ill., on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013. Zehr's wife and adult son took shelter in their basement as a tornado destroyed their farm house they were not injured. (AP Photo/David Mercer)
The six people who died in Illinois included an 80-year-old man and his 78-year-old sister who were killed by a twister that hit their farmhouse near the rural community of New Minden. A third person died in Washington, while three others perished in Massac County in the far southern part of the state, authorities said.
One of the Massac County victims was identified as 63-year-old Scholitta Burrus of Brookport, Ill.
"They found her over there buried amid the destruction," McCracken County Deputy Coroner Ryan Johnston said.

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/midwest-tornado-outbreak-20131118

Hurricane Season 2013: By the Numbers

Miami, Fla.

Miami, Fla.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

Through the end of October, only one named storm has made landfall in the United States during 2013 hurricane season.
The first storm of the season, Tropical Storm Andrea, moved inland near Steinhatchee, Fla. on June 6, 2013. 
Andrea brought heavy rain to Florida and spawned around 10 tornadoes in the state. From there, Andrea moved northward near the East Coast while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. This resulted in a swath of heavy rainfall from eastern North Carolina to Maine.
According to the National Hurricane Center report, property damage from Andrea was minor overall.
More Covered in the link below.

Winter Storm Boreas Brings Rockies Snow, Texas Ice; Snow Likely for Northeast

Winter Storm Boreas has brought heavy snow to parts of the southern Rockies and Four Corners, and is spreading a wintry mess of snow, sleet and freezing rain into parts of the Southern Plains.
The storm already has affected much of the Western U.S., causing hundreds of rollover accidents and prompting officials to cancel events and close roads. So far, Boreas has caused at least eight deaths and prompted travel advisories Saturday afternoon in New Mexico and Texas.
Background

Current Rain/Snow

Current Rain/Snow
Just in time for peak Thanksgiving travel, Boreas will also produce snow in parts of the interior Northeast starting late Tuesday. Computer forecast models are finally starting to come into better agreement about this phase of the storm.
Below is a regional breakdown of what to expect.

Southwest

Background

Snowfall Forecast

The heaviest snowfall totals from Winter Storm Boreas have been found in the southern Rockies, due both to a tap of deep moisture and a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system over the Southwest. Snowfall totals of 1 to 4 feet have occurred in the mountains of southwest Colorado, northern New Mexico, and southern Utah.
As of Sunday morning, snow totals of well over a foot had been recorded in the mountains of southeast Utah and the southwest San Juan mountains of Colorado. A whopping 41 inches had fallen near Abajo Peak in southeast Utah as of Sunday morning. In northern New Mexico, Taos ski area picked up 22 inches of snow by early Sunday.
There has also been some accumulating snow in the highest elevations of north-central and northeast Arizona; in the Flagstaff area, 1 to 5 inches fell, depending on elevation.
Even at valley locations, considerable snowfall occurred. Up to 8 inches of snow fell in and aroundSanta Fe, N.M., while 1 to 2 inches fell in the Albuquerque area.
Snow has diminished considerably in areal coverage across the Southwest, but light snow showers will hold on over the mountains of western Colorado and northern New Mexico, where the snow won't completely end until sometime during the day Monday.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Typhoon Haiyan Update: The Latest on Deaths, Damage in Philippines



Here are the latest casualty figures and damage reports from the Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan, according to the national crisis management agency.
  • National: 3,621 confirmed deaths, 1,140 missing and 12,166 injured, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.
  • Eastern Visayas region covering the islands of Leyte and Samar: 3,422 dead, 11,906 injured and 1,124 missing. Widespread severe damage. Tacloban, Leyte's main city with a population of 220,000, lies in ruins. Communications, transport cut in many areas.
  • Western Visayas region: 113 dead, 134 injured, 11 missing.
  • Central Visayas region that includes Cebu: 72 dead, 102 injured and 5 missing.
  • Other regions: 14 dead, 24 injured.

Super Typhoon Haiyan: Why It's One of World's Strongest Tropical Cyclones In History

Super Typhoon Haiyan's estimated maximum sustained winds were up to 195 mph on Nov. 7, 2013. This places Haiyan in elite company among tropical cyclones.
(MORE: News | Photos | How You Can Help)
According to Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground, since 1969, there have been only three other tropical cyclones worldwide with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph or more:
Not only was Haiyan's peak intensity stunning, but also its longevity with top-tier intensity.
Haiyan was estimated to have Category 5 equivalent winds for 48 consecutive hours from Nov. 6 at 7 a.m. EST until Nov. 8 at 7 a.m. EST. 
There were only three Atlantic Basin hurricanes since 1944 that spent more time as a Category 5 storm than Haiyan, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division:

LIVE UPDATES: Tornado Outbreak, Widespread Damaging Winds Sunday

http://bcove.me/g72ny5wx
Latest News and Information:
  • A large tornado touched down outside Peoria. "A confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado" was spotted near Washington, Illinois, located about 145 miles southwest of Chicago, the National Weather Service said, noting that the twister was moving northeast at about 55 miles per hour.
  • Soldier Field fans were instructed to clear the stadium seating area and relocate to the nearest covered concourse with 4:51 left in the first quarter, the Chicago Tribune reported. Referee Gene Steratore says "game will be temporarily suspended."
  • At least one tornado hit portions of Washington and another touched down in Pekin authorities confirmed. The Peoria Journal Star reported that Georgetown Commons apartment  complex in Washington was severely damaged and other areas were hit hard. Authorities were doing a house-to-house search.
A tornado outbreak and widespread damaging winds are expected in the Midwest today.
Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Detroit, Cleveland, and Louisville, Ky. are among the major cities at risk.

Tornado Outbreak, Widespread Damaging Winds Expected Sunday

A powerful storm system will bring tornadoes and widespread damaging wind gusts to the Midwest on Sunday. For live updates on today's outbreak, go to our live blog at this link.
Background

Sunday's Forecast

Sunday's Forecast
The red shading on the map to the right illustrates that parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley are among the regions most at risk for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes. This includes Chicago,Detroit, Cleveland, Indianapolis,Cincinnati, Nashville, Tenn. and Louisville, Ky.
Our Severe Weather Expert Dr. Greg Forbes has issued TOR:CON values as high as 9 for portions of Illinois and Indiana. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. Find out more about TOR:CON at this link. Some tornadoes could be strong and on the ground for a long distance.
It appears the severe weather outbreak will begin in the morning hours on the western side of our highlighted severe threat area and continue to progress eastward through the afternoon and into Sunday evening.
Sunday night into Monday, the thunderstorms will diminish, however strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts may persist through portions of New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey. This threat of strong, possibly damaging winds could extend as far east as New York City by early Monday morning.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, more than 100 million people are at risk for severe weather Sunday into early Monday morning, however keep in mind that not every single location in the threat area will see severe weather.
Below you will find our live updates ticker with the latest updates and breaking information on this outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Raymond Becomes a Hurricane Again

http://bcove.me/k6eq2gnb
Raymond has strengthened back into a hurricane for a second time, but should not threaten land again.
Raymond is starting to curve toward the northwest and may get a bit stronger yet Sunday and Sunday night. However, moving over cooler water and experiencing stronger wind shear, Raymond should weaken by Tuesday, eventually spinning down to a remnant low by mid-week. Raymond will not again threaten land as a tropical cyclone.
Earlier this week, Raymond brought heavy rainfall to the south-central Mexican coast. Acapulco, the largest city in Guerrero, reported nearly 10 inches of rain in the 72-hour period ending 7 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 23.

Storm History

Raymond developed as Tropical Depression Seventeen-E on the evening of Saturday, Oct. 19.
From Sunday morning, Oct. 20, into early Monday, Oct. 21, Raymond rapidly intensified with top sustained winds increasing from 40 mph to 120 mph, becoming the first major hurricane of 2013 in the entire Western Hemisphere. Raymond peaked in intensity late Monday with top sustained winds of 125 mph.
Raymond weakened to a tropical storm early on Wednesday, Oct. 23, before returning to hurricane strength in the early morning hours Sunday, Oct. 27.

Halloween Week Snowstorm for West, Northern Plains

This has already been a rather eventful October as far as winter storms are concerned.
First, Winter Storm Atlas buried parts of the northern High Plains of the western Dakotas, Wyoming and western Nebraska with heavy, wet snow crippling travel and snapping trees and powerlines. 
Then, this week, several locations from Upper Midwest to the Appalachians picked up their first measurable snow of the season.
Now, the last week of October brings yet another winter storm. Let's detail what we know now regarding this developing storm system.
Background

Monday's Forecast

Monday's Forecast
Background

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday's Forecast
Background

Snowfall Forecast

Snowfall Forecast

Mountains First

Sunday into Monday, an Arctic cold front will plunge southward from the Canadian Rockies and Prairies into the northern Rockies and Plains. Very strong high pressure will build southward behind the front, while at the same time strong low pressure develops over southern Idaho, northern Nevada and northern Utah.
The difference between these two pressure centers will lead to a region of very strong and locally damaging winds across the northern Rockies. Especially where channeled by local terrain, winds could gust over 60 mph in some locations.
In addition, strong gusty winds can be expected over the mountains of California on the back side (west side) of the low pressure system. The highest elevations could see gusts over 70 mph.
Accompanied by a vigorous upper-air disturbance eventually closing off into an upper low over the Great Basin, snow will spread into the interior Northwest, northern Rockies, adjacent High Plains and parts of the Great Basin and Sierra Nevada.
In the snowfall map at right, the heaviest accumulations over the next 48 hours should occur in parts of western and central Montana and the mountains of northern Wyoming. Some moderate accumulations are also expected in western South Dakota, but nothing even remotely resembling what Winter Storm Atlas brought.

Friday, October 25, 2013

Superstorm Sandy: Triumph of the Forecasting Models

Tropical Development
All in all, Sunday, Oct. 21, 2012, was an average day for forecasters in the United States.
Meteorologists at The Weather Channel's Global Forecast Center had a few strong thunderstorms to watch in West Texas, but otherwise there wasn't much going on stateside. 
(Watch The Weather Channel all day Tuesday for complete coverage of Superstorm Sandy)
There was an area of potential tropical development circled in the Caribbean, but that's typically a favored area for development anyway in October. And while we were concerned for Haiti and other Caribbean nations, most computer forecast models were taking this disturbance out to sea without any direct effect on the U.S. mainland.
But late that night, the most reliable computer forecast model in the business showed a powerful low pressure system coming up from the tropics and slamming into the New Jersey coast eight days later.
When that model data landed on forecasters' computer screens early on the morning of the 22nd, meteorologists were jolted awake.
Senior meteorologist Stu Ostro recalls it well. "I had out-of-town travel planned, and so I was keenly aware of the models both professionally and personally," he said.
This ominous forecast, made by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – the ECMWF computer forecast model – was a standout at the time. It was predicting a weather event virtually unprecedented in modern weather observation.
Naturally, forecasters had a healthy dose of skepticism, especially after this European forecast model botched forecasts of Tropical Storm Debby earlier in the season. 
There are more pages to this article. Use the link to look at the rest of the article.

Severe Weather May Return Next Week

The presence of widespread chilly air across much of the central and eastern U.S. will tend to suppress thunderstorm development in most areas over the next several days.
Background

Next 12 Hours

Next 12 Hours
Scattered thunderstorm activity will spark up again in the Four Corner States on Friday.
These thunderstorms will push into Texas over the weekend. Though a few storms could turn severe in west and central Texas on Saturday, the overall threat is low.
Next week, a new storm system will take shape. This could bring a return of some severe storms to portions of the central and southern states, however details are very uncertain at this time. We will provide more updates the next few days. You can find the initial day-by-day details by checking out our TOR:CON analysis from Dr. Greg Forbes.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Typhoon Nari Kills 13, Barrels Toward Vietnam

MANILA, Philippines — A typhoon blew out of the northern Philippines on Sunday after leaving 13 people dead, but officials remained on alert after another howler was spotted in the Pacific.
Typhoon Nari also flooded farmlands and destroyed thousands of houses in provinces north of Manila before blowing away into the South China Sea. Chinese authorities said about 27,000 fishing boats had been called back to port on Sunday, and heavy rains associated with the storm were expected to hit parts of southern China on Monday.
In San Miguel town in the Philippines' Bulacan province, the sun shone on villages where floodwaters that reached up to roof-level had receded, allowing residents to return from emergency shelters to clean up, wash muddied belongings and repair damaged houses.
Eduardo del Rosario, who heads the government's disaster-response agency, said police officers, military personnel and local officials would remain on alert after forecasters spotted another typhoon, named Wipha, more than 1,300 kilometers (807 miles) east of the northern Philippines.
Government forecasters said the new typhoon would likely spare the country if it does not veer away from its current course.
Nari was the 19th of more than 20 storms expected to batter the Philippines this year.

Cyclone Phailin: Strongest For India in a Decade

BEHRAMPUR, India — Mass evacuations spared India the widespread deaths many had feared from a powerful cyclone that roared ashore over the weekend, officials said Sunday, as the country sorted through the wreckage of flooded towns, tangled power lines and tens of thousands of destroyed thatch homes.
Tropical Cyclone Phailin made landfall between 9:30 and 10:00 p.m. local time (around midday U.S. Eastern time) Saturday near the town of Gopalpur, in eastern India's Odisha state.  (Note: A tropical cyclone is what we call a hurricane in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans.
Background

Remnants of Clyclone Phailin

Remnants of Clyclone Phailin
The storm, the strongest to hit India in more than a decade, destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of crops, but more than 20 hours after it made landfall in Orissa state on the country's east coast, authorities said they knew of only 17 fatalities.
The final death toll is expected to climb further as officials reach areas of the cyclone-battered coast that remain isolated by downed communication links and blocked roads, but the evacuation of nearly 1 million people appeared to have saved many lives

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Severe Weather: Damaging Winds, Hail Threaten Midwest, East

The storm system formerly known as Atlas, that dumped nearly four feet of snow in South Dakota and spawned a violent tornado in Nebraska, is expected to bring some severe weather to parts of the Northeast.  
Background

Severe Threat Sunday

Severe Threat Sunday
Background

Severe Threat Monday

Severe Threat Monday
(PHOTOS, NEWS: Tornadoes Hit Midwest)
Monday, most of the severe weather will be focused along a narrow area from southern Vermont to Washington, DC, in the afternoon.  The main threat from theses storms will be hail and high winds, although an isolated weak tornado cannot be totally ruled out.  The main "mode" for severe weather will more than likely be a squall line with bow echoes potentially embedded within.  The chance for showers and thunderstorms also extends down into the Carolinas and a few storms could pulse to severe levels, although organized severe weather is not expected at this time.  
Monday Threat Areas:  Albany, N.Y. |Washington, D.C. | Raleigh, N.C.

Storm System Karen Dissipates Off Gulf Coast

NEW ORLEANS — After days of lumbering toward the Gulf Coast, the storm system Karen dissipated Sunday as storm preparations in the region were called off or scaled back.
As tides began to recede along coastal Louisiana, crews worked to pick up sandbags and some fishermen took to the water. In Lafitte, the tide had water levels along Bayou Barataria lapping at the edges of piers and sections of the main roadway into the small fishing village prone to flooding.
"We're very lucky," fisherman Ken LeBeau said. He added that he was anxious to get out shrimping Sunday — while the tide is up, shrimp may be farther inland; fisherman don't have to venture as far out to catch them.
Background

Projected Path

Projected Path
The community has been swamped with flooding by several storms since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Many are just recovering from Hurricane Isaac last summer. Some are in the process of having their homes raised, and Mayor Timothy Kerner said levees are being planned for the area.
"It was a blessing from God that we actually dodged a bullet this time," Kerner said. He estimated that 40,000 sandbags had been put out and said the precautionary measure was worth it: "It's always easier to pick up sandbags than to clean up a flood.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

News Arizona Hotshots: Radio Communications Failure Cited in Deaths of 19 Firefighters

PRESCOTT, Ariz. -- A three-month investigation into the June deaths of 19 Arizona firefighters found that the men ceased radio communication for a half hour before they were killed in a wildfire blaze, but did not assign fault. Some family members say that reluctance could put other lives in danger.
The 120-page report released Saturday found that all procedures were followed and assigned little of blame for the worst firefighting tragedy since Sept. 11, 2001.  Investigators suggested that the state of Arizona should possibly update its guidelines and look into better tracking technology. You can read the full report HERE.
All but one member of the Granite Mountain Hotshots crew died June 30 while protecting the small former gold rush town of Yarnell, about 80 miles northwest of Phoenix, from an erratic, lightning-sparked wildfire. Hotshots are elite backcountry firefighters who hike deep into the brush to fight blazes.
While maintaining a neutral tone, the investigation cited badly programmed radios, vague updates, and a 33-minute communication blackout while the men hiked out of their safe zone to the spot where they would eventually be overcome by the fire. Though the report points to multiple failures, investigators did not consider whether the deaths could have been avoided, raising questions about what lessons firefighters will be able to take from the tragedy.