On September 11, Tropical Depression Fourteen later became Tropical Storm Nadine. Fortunately, Nadine was expected to remain well east and northeast of the Lesser Antilles and east of Bermuda.
Nadine became a hurricane, as it turned east late on September 14 (EDT). Then, things became interesting as its track resembled something your child might draw in pre-school.
Nadine's Path
However, an upper-level dip in the jet stream to the northeast of Nadine pulled away, while deep high pressure aloft replaced it. Thus, Nadine turned back toward the west and persisted into this week.
After briefly taking on the characteristics of a "subtropical" cyclone, the National Hurricane Center discontinued advisories late on Sep. 21, declaring Nadine a "post-tropical" cyclone due to a lack of deep convection near its center. That convection returned on Sep. 23, and Nadine was reborn again as a tropical storm, where it continues now.
Now, some weather forecast guidance suggests we may be dealing with Nadine loafing and lollygagging in the central Atlantic into next week, if another dip in the jet stream, or upper-level trough, doesn't catch Nadine and carry it away as an extratropical storm.
Longest-lived Atlantic List
In the period of record, there have been only 4 Atlantic named storms that have persisted as tropical cyclones for three weeks or longer.
Why is this so hard to accomplish?
- You need a tropical cyclone to move over an expansive swath of the ocean. This doesn't sound that unusual, right?
- Once the storm gains latitude, it needs to be missed by one or more upper-level dips or troughs in the jet stream. Instead of being sheared and carried away as a so-called "extratropical" storm, the tropical cyclone is left behind. Typically, a tropical cyclone may miss one upper-level trough. For a cyclone to miss two or more dips in the jet stream, however, is more unusual.
- Preferably, it stalls at least once, but not for so long that cooled ocean water from rain and upwelling doesn't significantly affect the storm's intake. This can happen just after an upper-level trough misses picking up the cyclone, as mentioned above.
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