Predicting presidents, storms and life by computer

In just two weeks this fall, computer models displayed an impressive prediction prowess, from predicting Superstorm Sandy to who would win the U.S. presidential election.

WASHINGTON — Forget political pundits, gut instincts, and psychics. The mightier-than-ever silicon chip seems to reveal the future.
In just two weeks this fall, computer models displayed an impressive prediction prowess.
It started when the first computer model alerted meteorologists to the late October disaster headed for the U.S. Northeast from a bunch of clouds in the Caribbean. Nearly a week later, that weather system became Hurricane Sandy and grew into a superstorm after taking a once-in-a-century sharp turn into New Jersey.
Then, statistician and blogger Nate Silver correctly forecast on his beat-up laptop how all 50 states would vote for president. He even predicted a tie in Florida and projected it eventually would tip to President Barack Obama, which is the equivalent of predicting a coin landing on its side. He did it by taking polling data, weighing it for past accuracy and running 40,000 computer simulations at a time.
He then gave his forecast in terms of percentages, saying that Obama had a 91 percent chance of being re-elected.
In the case of Sandy, lives were at stake. With the election, reputations were on the line and some pundits were dismissive of the computer modeling. Bets were made. Challenges issued.

http://news.msn.com/science-technology/predicting-presidents-storms-and-life-by-computer