Does the Saffir-Simpson Scale Need an Improvement?

Does the Saffir-Simpson Scale Need an Improvement?

NOAA via Getty Images

In this handout satellite image provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Hurricane Isaac moves toward the Gulf Coast on August 28, 2012.

The Saffir-Simpson Scale, used to measure wind speed in hurricanes, hasn't had such a great run over the last couple of years.
It isn't the fault of the scale, though -- it has always been solely a measure of wind speed, and sometimes, winds don't depict the true strength of a storm. Hurricane Isaac came ashore with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (a low-end Category 1 hurricane) but created a water rise of more than 11 feet at Shell Beach, La.
When the water rises that high, that fast, the danger doesn't always translate when the scale insists it's a minimal hurricane.
What if there was another way to categorize these storms? The Weather Channel is not trying to change the scale or reinvent the way the public looks at hurricanes, but the discussion is worthwhile.
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National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Rick Knabb addressed the need to bring a measure of storm surge into the warning system, much the way hurricane and tropical storm warnings are issued when the coastline is threatened.
"We've been working toward a new storm surge warning for a few years now," said Knabb in a Reuters interview. "And Debby, Isaac and Sandy show us how much we really need to hit the accelerator on getting that storm surge warning out the door."
Storm surge is never the same across the storm and may be altered by the makeup of a coastline, but forecasts for storm surge are already issued when a tropical system nears land. It might change as the storm morphs, but is there a possibility of classifying storm surge on a 1-to-5 scale? Since height of water rise changes drastically from one area of the coast to another spot nearby, perhaps a scale to measure how far the water penetrates onto the coast could be an option for measurement instead.
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"If, for example, you have a Category 1 hurricane that has a surge value that is a four out of five, I think the public can really draw something from that," said Weather Channel meteorologist Carl Parker.
Even further, rainfall could also be assigned a category, but this would raise a different discussion. If a storm like Tropical Storm Debby, which dumped an extreme amount of rain on parts of northern Florida, stalls over an area and inundates the same spot for days, surely the weakened winds that came with the storm aren't the most treacherous aspect.
"If you had a one-through-five value, and you were to say that an Irene would have had a value of five in New England (for rainfall), I think there's real value in that," said Parker.
If the National Hurricane Center or other outside influencers can categorize storm surge and even rainfall to give the public a more detailed look at the risks with each unique tropical system, maybe the folks who stayed in their homes in New Orleans during Hurricane Isaac's onslaught would have a better knowledge of the dangers coming. Perhaps a category for wind speed, storm surge and rainfall, averaged together, would have made some of the Category 1 storms of the past few years seem more daunting and, thus, victims might have taken them more seriously.
"(The Saffir-Simpson Scale) can survive, but it's probably not the most useful way to look at (a storm's) impacts," said Weather Channel Hurricane Specialist Dr. Greg Postel. "Certain aspects of the storm are worse than others ... wind impacts may be relatively small in a system where marine impacts -- waves, flooding and storm surge -- are large."
Experts agree it wouldn't be wise to cast the Saffir-Simpson Scale aside, but bringing some new factors into the equation might move the science of forecasting tropical systems into a new era -- an era that might save more lives when the full force of a hurricane charges onto land.