While the Atlantic hurricane season may have taken its last breath, that is certainly not the case in the western Pacific Ocean.
Forecast Path
Forecast Path
Haiyan's forecast west-northwest track will keep it well south of Guam, however, it will also put it on a collision course with the Philippines later this week.
According to the latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (shown in the second graphic at right), Haiyan may approach super typhoon status (sustained winds at least 150 mph) before reaching the central Philippines Friday morning, local time (Thursday evening, U.S. time).
Given this more southern track than past tropical cyclones this season, the Philippine capital of Manila, home to roughly 12 million people in the metro area, is in danger of a direct strike by Haiyan Friday night or Saturday local time (Friday, U.S. time).
Furthermore, another tropical cyclone has already soaked parts of the central Philippines.
Therefore, any additional rain from Haiyan will fall over saturated ground in the central Philippines, raising the threat of flooding and mudslides.
(MORE: Tropical Update)
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the Philippines are hit by six or seven tropical cyclones in an average year.
In October, Typhoon Nari flooded farmlands and destroyed thousands of homes north of Manila.
Heavy rainbands on the southern edge of Typhoon Trami flooded Manila in August, claiming at least 18 lives and chasing over one quarter million from their homes. This occurred just over a week after Typhoon Utor slammed into the northern Philippines.
Roughly 30 percent of the average annual rainfall in the northern Philippines is believed to be from tropical cyclones, according to a 2008 satellite study.
Haiyan is the Chinese word for petrel, a type of bird that lives over the open sea and returns to land only for breeding. Haiyan is the 28th named storm of the 2013 Western Pacific typhoon season.
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