Hello everyone, this is the Final 2013-2014 Winter Forecast from The Weather Centre. This post will finalize my projections for this winter, with 3 month-averaged temperature, precipitation and snowfall graphics. Month by month descriptions will be written below each graphic. If you do not wish to see the discussion, you may scroll down to the graphics to see the forecast itself.
There are a lot of factors to look at, and we're going to start out with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
- See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/10/final-2013-2014-winter-forecast.html#sthash.cDglCMy0.dpuf
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (or ENSO) phenomenon involves anomalous sea surface temperatures across these four regions on the chart above. When sea surface temperatures are below normal in this graph, it is said that a La Nina is in place. In similar fashion, above normal sea surface temperatures (SST's) in the Nino 3.4 region correspond to the term 'El Nino'. Both the La Nina and El Nino have different effects on the United States- an El Nino brings about a snowy and cold East Coast, while allowing warm and dry weather to flourish in the Plains and Midwest. A La Nina permits cool and snowy weather to hit the Ohio Valley and Midwest, while warming up portions of the Southern US. Looking at the chart above, from TropicalTidbits, we see a neutral ENSO, meaning the water temperatures are not cold enough to be declared a La Nina, and are not warm enough to be called an El Nino. Because the ENSO is in a neutral state, we are once again going to see other atmospheric patterns affect our winter this year, like last year, because the ENSO is not strong enough to have a pertinent influence on our weather.
- See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/10/final-2013-2014-winter-forecast.html#sthash.cDglCMy0.dpuf
An animation of subsurface water temperatures under the ENSO regions shows disagreement over what phase the oscillation is currently in. This confusion confirms the idea that we are in a neutral ENSO state, and a lack of any agreement over temperature anomalies underwater suggests the rest of the fall (and most likely throughout the winter) will also see this neutral ENSO condition.
We will now move on to something called the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, or QBO for short.
- See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/10/final-2013-2014-winter-forecast.html#sthash.cDglCMy0.dpuf
No comments:
Post a Comment