Thursday, April 24, 2014

No tornado Deaths: 2014 Has Longest Fatality-Free Start in 99 Years


Even as we push deeper into the heart of spring tornado season, 2014 has so far completely spared Americans the agony and grief of tornado-related deaths. The year's long early safe streak has put 2014 in rare territory, historically.
The modern era of tornado records began in 1950 with the advent of the storm database maintained by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This year has now gone on longer than any other calendar year in that era without a tornado fatality.
The previous record belonged to 2002, when the year's first killer tornado struck April 21 -- an F3 that killed a man in a mobile home in a rural area of Wayne County, Illinois.

History in the Making?

When compiling historical tornado lists, one way to compare records is to look at four different eras, reflecting the evolution of tornado documentation as described in tornado historian Tom Grazulis' compendium, Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991:
  • The modern era, 1950-present. In his book, Grazulis notes that "serious efforts" to document all tornadoes began in 1953, which was the first full year of tornado watches issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service. The bureau began collecting thorough data in an attempt to determine how well the watches were verifying (i.e., how many watches contained tornadoes).
  • Since the "middle period"; 1916-present. Grazulis points out that the government began keeping an official count of tornadoes in 1916, but the effort was not evenly executed in every state.
  • Since the "early period"; 1880-present. The efforts of John Park Finley, considered America's first tornado climatologist and first forecaster of severe thunderstorms, resulted in a great advance in the collection of tornado reports beginning in 1880. Grazulis notes, however, that the historical record from 1880-1915 is likely incomplete owing to a relative lack of small-town newspapers in what was then the predominantly poor and rural South, as compared to a more robust newspaper and storm reporting network in the Plains.
  • Since the end of the Civil War; 1866-present. Very few tornadoes were reported or recorded in the chaos of the Civil War, so attempting to craft a list any farther back in time than 1866 is futile.
Even including what are likely incomplete historical records from the mid 19th to early 20th centuries, 2014 already ranks among the top 10 years with the longest fatality-free start. It's likely that some of those older years in the record had undocumented tornado deaths, which would move 2014 even higher in the rankings if we had perfect knowledge of what happened back then.
http://www.weather.com/safety/tornadoes/no-tornado-deaths-safety-streak-record-20140420

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