Election Day forecasted to be warmer than usual

Hundreds of warm temperature records will fall across large portions of the Central and Southern U.S. during the next two weeks, as the jet stream lifts north to a summer-like position across Canada, allowing unusually warm weather to move into the U.S. for an extended period of time. The warmth could last straight through election day.

The weather maps for the next 10 days look more like mid-to-late August than late October and early November, with storm systems zipping across Canada, and few, if any, outbreaks of cold air moving southward into the U.S.

This unusual weather pattern has implications for the presidential election, since a warmer-than-average, relatively tranquil election day would likely be ideal for maximizing voter turnout. 

Temperatures may be high enough through November 10 to threaten not only daily records, but even monthly records too, with highs running 10 to 20-plus degrees Fahrenheit above average from the end of October into the beginning of November in cities including Minneapolis, Omaha, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver and Oklahoma City. 

Temperature outlook for November 4 to 10, 2016, showing milder than average conditions across the U.S., including Alaska. This includes election day.

IMAGE: NOAA/CPC

Many places across the U.S. will also be unseasonably warm during the run-up to Nov. 8, and many states, like Florida and Ohio, have already started early voting.

While this forecast could change, given the amount of uncertainty associated with predictions so far in advance, computer model projections are in agreement that nearly the entire country will be warmer-than-average and relatively storm-free on Nov. 8. 

Two exceptions may be the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where an area of low pressure, with cooler temperatures, may develop, as well as the Pacific Northwest.

Computer model projection of temperature anomalies on Nov. 8, 2016. Reddish hues correspond to unusually mild temperatures.

IMAGE: WEATHERBELL ANALYTICS

Prior to voting day, however, record warmth will envelop areas outside the Northeast, California and Pacific Northwest. Thousands of people will go trick-or-treating during what is likely to be the warmest Halloween on record. 

In fact, you may want to rethink your costume if you're currently planning to go as a character or concept that requires multiple layers of clothing, given that it may feel like summer outside. 

This is especially the case if you are heading to a Halloween party in the Midwest, Plains or South.

For example, current forecasts call for a high temperature of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit in St. Louis on Monday, which would be 20 degrees Fahrenheit above average for the date. Even Minneapolis, which typically can see snow on Halloween, may flirt with the 70-degree mark. 

CFS ensemble mean temperature departures from average from Oct. 28 to Nov. 7.

IMAGE: WEATHERBELL ANALYTICS

The records that are set will only add to the massive imbalance between the number of record highs set so far in 2016 compared to record lows. Through Oct. 26, there were been 20,847 daily high temperature records set or tied in the U.S. this year, compared to just 3,920 record lows. 

That's an absolute blowout by a ratio of about 6-to-1, and is part of a long-term trend toward more high temperature records set each year compared to cold records. Studies have linked this trend to human-caused global warming.

The warm finish to October could help ensure that many locations in the Plains and South will set a monthly high temperature record, too.

The warm weather in early November does not mean that the U.S. will have a mild winter, however. In fact, there are indications the winter could be colder and snowier than average for many, particularly in the Upper Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

(Source)