ll we or won’t we see La Niña emerge this year? Does it even matter? Shoot, if one of the strongest El Niño episodes in history didn’t deliver much drought relief to California last winter, what are the chances for significant improvement this year? I’ll attempt to answer these and other questions here in my 5th blog post.
This blog is brought to you by the letter p, for “probability”
So what might influence our climate this winter? As you know from the ENSO blog, there is a link between the fall and winter conditions across the tropical Pacific and the average winter climate in the U.S. If the likely La Niña develops, certain patterns of temperature and precipitation would be favored across the country. Over the past few years, we’ve discussed the patterns favored by El Niño, but haven’t really discussed what we often see during La Niña winters. Roughly speaking, La Niña impacts are opposite to what is observed during El Niño winters (see the figure).
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