Winter Storm Cleon, the third named winter storm of the 2013-14 season. Cleon will usher in a period of very cold weather across much of the western and northern U.S., along with zones of significant snowfall.

Snow Forecast: West

Snow will continue in the northern Rockies and Cascades Monday, shifting south into the Wasatch, Great Basin, Colorado high country, and Sierra later Monday into Monday night.

Heavy snow is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night from east-central Nevada into primarily the mountains and high plateau of Utah and western Colorado, before tapering off Wednesday morning.

The heaviest snow accumulations are expected in the Tetons and Beartooth Range of southwest Montana, northwest Wyoming, the Wasatch of Utah and mountains of Colorado, where over a foot of total snow may accumulate. Some mountain ranges in eastern Utah and western Colorado can expect 2 to 3 feet of snow.

Snow Forecast: Plains/Midwest 

Winter Storm Cleon will also lay down a swath of heavy snow from the northern High Plains to the northern Great Lakes through the middle of the week.

Monday night, light to moderate snow will fall over the northern tier from eastern Montana into North Dakota, northern South Dakota, northern and central Minnesota, northern and central Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Nighttime accumulations could approach a half foot in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, on top of what fell Monday.

As the Arctic cold front plunges south, this broad area of snow (mixed with rain farther east) will expand Tuesday to include more of Wyoming and South Dakota while generally continuing over the aforementioned areas.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, as low pressure intensifies in the Upper Midwest, snow will also intensify from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Blizzard or near-blizzard conditions are possible in some outlying areas of the eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota from late Tuesday into late Wednesday, though this will depend on the yet-unclear track of the Upper Midwest low pressure system.

- Snow: Some amounts over six inches possible in the High Plains from western Kansas and far eastern Colorado to the northern Texas Panhandle. Totals on the order of a couple of inches are possible from parts of Oklahoma and eastern Kansas northeastward into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and the interior Northeast.

- Freezing Rain/Sleet: The potential exists for significant ice accumulation from Oklahoma and north Texas into southern Missouri, Arkansas, northern Mississippi, west Tennessee into the Ohio Valley. Hazardous roads (not just bridges and overpasses), downed tree limbs, and at least some power outages are possible in these areas by Thursday and Friday.

Winter Storm Boreas is bringing heavy snow to parts of the southern Rockies and Four Corners, and will spread a wintry mess of snow, sleet and freezing rain into parts of the Southern Plains.

The storm already has affected much of the Western U.S., causing hundreds of rollover accidents and prompting officials to cancel events and close roads. So far, Boreas has caused at least eight deaths and prompted travel advisories Saturday afternoon in New Mexico and Texas.

Southwest

The heaviest snowfall totals from Winter Storm Boreas will be found in the southern Rockies, due both to a tap of deep moisture and a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system over the Southwest.
As of Saturday morning, snow totals of 10 to 25 inches have been recorded in the mountains of southeast

Utah and the southwest San Juan mountains of Colorado. In northern New Mexico, Taos ski area has picked up 17 inches of snow so far.

When all is said and done, storm total accumulations of one to three feet will be common in southwest Colorado, northern New Mexico and southern Utah. Travel will be difficult, particularly over mountain passes in these areas.

The heaviest snow will continue through early Sunday in these areas, then taper off to lighter snow later Sunday into Monday.

Texas, Oklahoma: Ice and Snow

The Southern Plains have been dealing with bouts of light freezing rain, sleet and some snow since Friday. Oklahoma City, Lubbock, Texas and Abilene, Texas are just a few of the locations that have been dealing with this wintry weather.

A more significant wave of sleet, freezing rain, or snow will head out in the Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday and persist into early Monday.

This wave will bring accumulating freezing rain and/or sleet as far east as the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, where a winter storm warning is now posted.

Ice is also possible along the I-35 corridor to as far south as Austin Sunday into Sunday night. Some icing may also spread as far east as Arkansas and northern Louisiana Sunday night into early Monday.

Boreas Heads East

Winter Storm Boreas may have a second chapter if a frontal system spreading rain through the Southeast U.S. on Tuesday eventually turns northward and teams up with a plunge of cold air arriving from southern Canada and the Great Lakes.

At this point, we must stress that this portion of the forecast is very uncertain since computer models remain in disagreement about the exact track of the storm. An area of low pressure tracking into the Northeast would have a much greater impact than one heading farther out to sea.

Our current forecast is based on the expectation that the low will pass through the Northeast. This would bring a potential for accumulating snow to parts of the interior Northeast beginning late Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday.

While it is too far out in time to pain any specifics, at this time, it appears the immediate I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C. would see mainly rain from this storm if our current forecast scenario pans out. That said, we can't rule out some light snow accumulations on the tail end of Boreas, particularly in the western and northern suburbs.

Despite this, there could be significant delays at the major hubs of the Northeast Wednesday, so plan ahead and check your flight status before arriving at the airport.

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-boreas-southwest-texas-oklahoma-kansas-northeast-20131122

 

The cleanup from Sunday's outbreak of tornadoes had scarcely begun, but people in storm-ravaged towns like Washington, 140 miles southwest of Chicago, had to keep moving.

The tornado cut a path about an eighth of a mile wide from one side of Washington to the other and damaged or destroyed as many as 500 homes.

It could be days before power is restored in the town of 16,000, state officials said Monday, and debris was still scattered across the streets. But people forced out of their homes were allowed back in Monday to survey damage and see what they could save.
 
Though the powerful line of thunderstorms and tornadoes howled across 12 states Sunday, flattening neighborhoods in minutes, the death toll stood at just eight.

"Based on Severe Weather Expert Dr. Greg Forbes' latest estimate, Sunday's outbreak may crack the top five largest November outbreaks on record in the U.S.," said weather.com senior meteorologist Jon Erdman. "This appears to be the largest November outbreak in almost eight years."

Forecasters' uncannily accurate predictions, combined with television and radio warnings, text-message alerts and storm sirens, almost certainly saved lives.

Another factor was forecasting, which has steadily improved with the arrival of faster, more powerful computers. Scientists are now better able to replicate atmospheric processes into mathematical equations.

In the last decade alone, forecasters have doubled the number of days in advance that weather experts can anticipate major storms, said Bill Bunting of the National Weather Service.

But Bunting, forecast operations chief of the service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said it was not until Saturday that the atmospheric instability that turns smaller storm systems into larger, more menacing ones came into focus.

Information from weather stations, weather balloons, satellite imagery and radar told scientists that there was more than enough moisture - fuel for storms - making its way northeast from the Gulf of Mexico.

Despite Sunday's destruction and at least eight deaths, 2013 has been a relatively mild year for twisters in the U.S., with the number of twisters running at or near record lows.

An outbreak like the one that developed Sunday usually happens about once every seven to 10 years, according to tornado experts at the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center and National Severe Storm Lab in Norman, Okla.

The outbreak occurred because of unusually warm moist air from Louisiana to Michigan that was then hit by an upper-level cold front. That crash of hot and cold, dry and wet, is what triggers tornadoes.

Like most November storms, this one was high in wind shear and lower in moist energy. Wind shear is the difference between winds at high altitude and wind near the surface.

Because it was high in wind shear, the storm system moved fast, like a speeding car, Brooks said. That meant the storm hit more places before it petered out, affecting more people, but it might have been slightly less damaging where it hit because it was moving so fast, he said.

Intense thunderstorms and tornadoes swept across the Midwest Sunday, causing damage in several central Illinois communities while sending people to their basements for shelter and even prompting officials at Soldier Field in Chicago to evacuate the stands and delay the Bears game. At least one person has died in the storms.

The community of Washington in central Illinois appeared particularly hard hit, and a state official said that emergency crews were racing to the area amid reports that people had been trapped in buildings. But communications were spotty — many calls made by to the area by The Associated Press could not be completed — and Patti Thompson of the Illinois Department of Emergency Management said it was difficult to get information from the scene.

As the storm darkened downtown Chicago after noon, the Chicago Bears game was delayed and fans were ordered out of the stands and players led off the field.

Despite the reports of tornadoes, there were not yet any confirmed reports of injuries.

"Our primary message is this is a dangerous weathers system that has the potential to be extremely deadly and destructive," said Laura Furgione, deputy director of the National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Get ready now."

Weather service officials confirmed that a tornado touched down just before 11 a.m. near the central Illinois community of East Peoria, but authorities did not immediately have damage or injury reports. Within an hour, the weather service said that tornadoes had touched down in Washington, Metamora, Morton and other central communities, though officials could not say whether it was one tornado touching down or several. Weather officials said it was moving northeast about 60 mph; East Peoria is about 150 miles southwest of Chicago.

"This is a very dangerous situation," said Russell Schneider, director of the weather service's Storm Prediction Center. "Approximately 53 million in 10 states are at significant risk for thunderstorms and tornadoes."


http://www.weather.com/news/weather-severe/severe-outbreak-aftermath-updates-20131117

Help is beginning to trickle in to the Philippines in the wake of the devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan, however it's from from enough. Desperation is setting in as thousands of people with nowhere to go wait for clean water, food, and medical care.

When two Philippine Air Force C-130s arrived at the typhoon-wrecked airport here just after dawn
Tuesday, more than 3,000 people who had camped out hoping to escape the devastation surged onto the tarmac past a broken iron fence. Only a few hundred made it aboard; the rest were left in a shattered, rain-lashed city short of food and water and littered with uncounted bodies.

Just a dozen soldiers and several police held the crowd back. Mothers raised their babies high above their heads in the rain, in hopes of being prioritized. One woman in her 30s lay on a stretcher, shaking uncontrollably.

"I was pleading with the soldiers. I was kneeling and begging because I have diabetes," said Helen Cordial, whose house was destroyed in the storm. "Do they want me to die in this airport? They are stone-hearted."

"We need help. Nothing is happening," said Aristone Balute, an 81-year-old who also didn't get a flight. "We haven't eaten since yesterday afternoon." Her clothes were soaked from the rain, and tears streamed down her face.

The struggle at Tacloban's airport is one of countless scenes of misery in the eastern Philippines since Typhoon Haiyan struck Friday. Only a tiny amount of assistance has arrived and the needs of the nearly 10 million people affected by the disaster are growing ever more urgent.

The official death toll from the disaster stood at 1,774 on Tuesday, though authorities have said they expect that to rise markedly. They fear estimates of 10,000 dead are accurate and might be low.

Tropical Depression Zoraida formed and caused more problems Monday for the devastated Philippines. Tuesday morning, it was downgraded to a remnant low.

As local authorities struggled to deal with the enormity of the disaster, the United Nations said it had had released $25 million in emergency funds and was launching an emergency appeal for money.

Tacloban, a city of about 220,000 people on Leyte island, bore the full force of the winds and the tsunami-like storm surges. Most of the city is in ruins, a tangled mess of destroyed houses, cars and trees. Malls, garages and shops have all been stripped of food and water by hungry residents.

Most residents spent the night under pouring rain wherever they could - in the ruins of destroyed houses, in the open along roadsides and shredded trees. Some slept under tents brought in by the government or relief groups.

Local doctors said they were desperate for medicine. Beside the ruined airport tower, at a small makeshift clinic with shattered windows, army and air force medics said they had treated around 1,000 people since the typhoon for cuts, bruises, lacerations and deep wounds.

"It's overwhelming," said Air Force Capt. Antonio Tamayo. "We need more medicine. We cannot give anti-tetanus vaccine shots because we have none."

International aid groups and militaries are rushing assistance to the region, but little has arrived. Government officials and police and army officers have been caught up in the disaster themselves, hampering coordination.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/typhoon-haiyan-update-victims-aid-20131111

 MANILA, Philippines — Thousands of people evacuated villages in the central Philippines on Thursday before one of the year's strongest typhoons strikes the region, including a province devastated by an earthquake last month.

Typhoon Haiyan intensified and accelerated as it moved closer to the country with sustained winds of 140 miles per hour and ferocious gusts of 162 mph. It could further strengthen and pick up speed as it moves over the Pacific Ocean before slamming into the eastern province of Samar early Friday, government forecaster Buddy Javier said.

"This is the third super typhoon (maximum sustained winds of at least 150 mph) in less than three weeks," said Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist at The Weather Channel. "Already, three typhoons have struck the Philippines this year.

"Last December, Super Typhoon Bopha raked the southernmost Philippine island of Mindanao, causing over 1,000 deaths, mostly from flash flooding and landslides, and becoming the costliest storm to ever impact the Philippines."

As of 9 p.m., the eye of the typhoon was 211 miles southeast of Eastern Samar province's Guiuan township. The storm was moving at 24 mph, up from its earlier speed of 20 mph.

The storm was not expected to directly hit Manila further north. The lowest alert in a four-level typhoon warning system was issued in the flood-prone capital area, meaning it could experience winds of up to 37 mph and rain.

The U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii said it was the strongest tropical cyclone in the world this year. Cyclone Phailin, which hit eastern India on Oct. 12, packed sustained winds of up to 138 mph and stronger gusts.

President Benigno Aquino III warned people to leave high-risk areas, including 100 coastal communities where forecasters said the storm surge could reach up to 23 feet. He urged seafarers to stay in port.

Aquino also assured the public of war-like preparations: three C-130 air force cargo planes and 32 military
helicopters and planes on standby, along with 20 navy ships.

"No typhoon can bring Filipinos to their knees if we'll be united," he said in a televised address.

Governors and mayors supervised the evacuation of landslide- and flood-prone communities in several provinces where the typhoon is expected to pass, said Eduardo del Rosario, head of the government's main disaster-response agency. School classes and plane flights were canceled in many areas.

Aquino ordered officials to aim for zero casualties, a goal often not met in an archipelago lashed by about 20 tropical storms each year, most of them deadly and destructive. Haiyan is the 24th such storm to hit the Philippines this year.

Edgardo Chatto, governor of Bohol island province in the central Philippines, where an earthquake in

October killed more than 200 people, said soldiers, police and rescue units were helping displaced residents, including thousands staying in small tents, move to shelters. Bohol is not forecast to receive a direct hit but is expected to be battered by strong winds and rain, government forecaster Jori Loiz said.

"My worst fear is that the eye of this typhoon will hit us. I hope we will be spared," Chatto told The Associated Press by telephone.

Gov. Roger Mercado of landslide-prone Southern Leyte province said more than 6,000 residents had been evacuated to shelters, government and emergency personnel had been put on alert, and relief goods have been packed for distribution.

"All we are doing now is we are praying, praying hard," he told ABS-CBN News Channel.
Mayor Emiliana Villacarillo of Eastern Samar's Dolores township said residents of her town did not want to be evacuated because the weather was fine on Thursday but "we forced them and hauled them to evacuation centers."

Haiyan is forecast to barrel through the country's central region Friday and Saturday before blowing toward the South China Sea over the weekend, heading toward Vietnam.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/typhoon-haiyan-philippines-20131107

Imagine bundling up to get the newspaper on an early morning at 7:30 a.m. with the temperature at a frigid -4 degrees.

Just two minutes later as you are letting Fido have a potty break on the lawn, you notice that the frigid air you walked out the door into is not so frigid anymore. You look at your thermometer and the temperature has shot up to 45 degrees. That's right, a temperature increase of 49 degrees in just two minutes!

But wait, that's not the end of this wild morning weather story. After the temperature climbs all the way to 54 degrees at 9 a.m., it crashes down again 58 degrees in 27 minutes to -4 degrees once again.

Sounds like a dream, but it's not. All of this happened in Spearfish, S.D. on January 22, 1943.

The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls, S.D. describes the cause of the dramatic temperature changes:

"The wild temperature fluctuations were likely due to cold air and warm air sloshing back and forth along the plains at the base of the Black Hills. A similar effect would be to pour warm water into a shallow bowl of cold water. The water would slosh back and forth a few times before settling down. This is likely what happened with the warm and cold air along the Black Hills."
http://www.weather.com/sports-rec/below-zero/5-extreme-temperature-drops-20130118

Some of the world's top climate scientists say wind and solar energy won't be enough to head off extreme global warming, and they're asking environmentalists to support the development of safer nuclear power as one way to cut fossil fuel pollution.

Four scientists who have played a key role in alerting the public to the dangers of climate change sent letters Sunday to leading environmental groups and politicians around the world. The letter, an advance copy of which was given to The Associated Press, urges a crucial discussion on the role of nuclear power in fighting climate change.

Environmentalists agree that global warming is a threat to ecosystems and humans, but many oppose nuclear power and believe that new forms of renewable energy will be able to power the world within the next few decades.

That isn't realistic, the letter said.

"Those energy sources cannot scale up fast enough" to deliver the amount of cheap and reliable power the world needs, and "with the planet warming and carbon dioxide emissions rising faster than ever, we cannot afford to turn away from any technology" that has the potential to reduce greenhouse gases.

The letter signers are James Hansen, a former top NASA scientist; Ken Caldeira, of the Carnegie Institution; Kerry Emanuel, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and Tom Wigley, of the University of Adelaide in Australia.

Hansen began publishing research on the threat of global warming more than 30 years ago, and his testimony before Congress in 1988 helped launch a mainstream discussion. Last February he was arrested in front of the White House at a climate protest that included the head of the Sierra Club and other activists. Caldeira was a contributor to reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Emanuel is known for his research on possible links between climate change and hurricanes, and Wigley has also been doing climate research for more than 30 years.

Emanuel said the signers aren't opposed to renewable energy sources but want environmentalists to understand that "realistically, they cannot on their own solve the world's energy problems."

The vast majority of climate scientists say they're now virtually certain that pollution from fossil fuels has increased global temperatures over the last 60 years. They say emissions need to be sharply reduced to prevent more extreme damage in the future.

In 2011 worldwide carbon dioxide emissions jumped 3 percent, because of a large increase by China, the No. 1 carbon polluting country. The U.S. is No. 2 in carbon emissions.

Hansen, who's now at Columbia University, said it's not enough for environmentalists to simply oppose fossil fuels and promote renewable energy.

"They're cheating themselves if they keep believing this fiction that all we need" is renewable energy such as wind and solar, Hansen told the AP.

The joint letter says, "The time has come for those who take the threat of global warming seriously to embrace the development and deployment of safer nuclear power systems" as part of efforts to build a new global energy supply.

Stephen Ansolabehere, a Harvard professor who studies energy issues, said nuclear power is "very divisive" within the environmental movement. But he added that the letter could help educate the public about the difficult choices that climate change presents.

One major environmental advocacy organization, the Natural Resources Defense Council, warned that "nuclear power is no panacea for our climate woes."

Risk of catastrophe is only one drawback of nuclear power, NRDC President Frances Beinecke said in a statement. Waste storage and security of nuclear material are also important issues, he said.
"The better path is to clean up our power plants and invest in efficiency and renewable energy."

The scientists acknowledge that there are risks to using nuclear power, but say those are far smaller than the risk posed by extreme climate change.

"We understand that today's nuclear plants are far from perfect."
http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/nuclear-power-global-warming-20131103

This has already been a rather eventful October as far as winter storms are concerned.

First, Winter Storm Atlas buried parts of the northern High Plains of the western Dakotas, Wyoming and western Nebraska with heavy, wet snow crippling travel and snapping trees and powerlines.

Then, last week, several locations from Upper Midwest to the Appalachians picked up their first measurable snow of the season.

Now, the final week of October has brought yet another winter storm to the western states. Let's detail what we know now regarding this storm system.

Snow Timeline

On Monday, the storm delivered 5.9 inches of snow to Great Falls, Mont. This is the third greatest single-day October snowfall total on record in the city. Winnemucca, Nev. also had its third snowiest

October day on Monday with a total of 4.1 inches.

Elsewhere, the storm brought 7.8 inches of snow to Riverton, Wyo. on Tuesday. Up to 15 inches was recorded at Sugarbowl Ski Resort in California.

Thanks to a vigorous upper-atmospheric low over the Great Basin, snow will continue in the Rockies on Tuesday.
Here's an approximate timeline on the wintry weather:

• Tuesday: Areas of light to moderate snow continue over much of the central and northern Rockies (see inset map for details). A few lingering snowflakes possible early for the mountains of California. A strip of light snow continues across parts of the northern Plains. The greatest additional snowfall amounts will be found in the mountains of Wyoming and Colorado. Pockets of freezing rain or freezing drizzle will continue to show up in the transition zone over parts of South Dakota, northwest Nebraska and southeast Wyoming as warm air tries to intrude into the storm system from the south.
• Wednesday: Light snow showers persist over the mountains of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. Farther east, warm air starts to overwhelm the Plains, changing most of the frozen precipitation over to rain. Still, a few pockets of frozen precipitation may linger over parts of the central Dakotas with little or no impact to travel.

Powerful Winds

An Arctic cold front moved southward from the Canadian Rockies and Prairies into the northern Rockies and Plains the last couple of days. Very strong high pressure (1038 millibars) built southward behind the front, while at the same time strong low pressure (998 millibars) developed over Nevada.

The difference between these two pressure centers led to widespread strong, gusty winds on Monday in parts of the West.

It was a windy day in the Las Vegas area on Monday. Gusts higher than 50 mph were recorded in the afternoon.

Tuesday, gusty winds will linger in parts of New Mexico, northern/eastern Arizona and in the central Rockies.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/rockies-snowstorm-halloween-week-20131023

Chilly air across much of the central and eastern U.S. has kept a lid on severe weather potential over the past few days, but that is about to change as the jet stream pattern undergoes a major shift across the country.

The jet stream – the band of winds some 30,000 feet aloft that influences large-scale weather patterns – will plunge south across the Western states in the coming days. Meanwhile, southerly winds will start to bring moist air from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the southern and central Plains and eventually parts of the Midwest and Southeast.

Eventually, as the disturbance in the West starts to push east into the moist unstable air, severe thunderstorms are likely to develop. The questions are exactly where, when, and how much – and there are still some uncertainties in that part of the forecast.

Sunday, there is a chance for thunderstorms in east Texas, Louisiana and western Mississippi.  The threat for severe weather remains fairly low with these.

By Monday evening we could start to see some severe weather erupt in parts of the Plains, as shown in the inset map on the right.

After that, severe thunderstorms will be possible every day of the workweek, starting in the central and southern Plains states Tuesday. Computer model forecasts differ on how quickly this storm system will move east, so the day-to-day details are not clear yet. Eventually parts of the Ohio Valley, mid- and lower

Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast could be implicated in some sort of severe weather threat during the Wednesday-to-Friday time frame.

We will continue to update this situation on this page as it unfolds. You can find the initial day-by-day details by checking out our TOR:CON analysis from Dr. Greg Forbes.

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-weather-tracker-page

Raymond has now weakened to a tropical storm as it continues moving slowly away from the Mexican Pacific coast.

That said, lingering bands of heavy rain will continue to soak parts of the south-central Mexico coast into Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides near and inland from the coast of Mexico, specifically the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These areas were devastated by flooding and mudslides from Hurricane Manuel last month, killing over 100 people.

Acapulco reported 7.63 inches (194 mm) of rain in the 48-hour period ending at 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday.

Improving conditions are likely along the Mexico coast through late week as Raymond moves farther away.
From Sunday morning into early Monday, Raymond rapidly intensified with top sustained winds increasing from 40 mph to 120 mph, becoming the first major hurricane of 2013 in the entire Western Hemisphere.
Raymond peaked in intensity late Monday with top sustained winds of 125 mph, but has since weakened.



http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-raymond-mexico-acapulco-zihuatanejo-pacific-20131021

CANBERRA, Australia  — Firefighters battling some of the most destructive wildfires to ever strike Australia's most populous state were focusing on a major blaze Sunday near the town of Lithgow that stretched along a 300-kilometer (190-mile) front.

Authorities warned that high temperatures and winds were likely to maintain heightened fire danger for days in New South Wales state.

"An area of low pressure is bringing a chance of showers early this week to portions of southeast Australia where the fires are burning." said weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce. "After that, high pressure will return, leading to a return of dry conditions the rest of the week. Temperatures will also turn a bit cooler."

The fires have killed one man, destroyed 208 homes and damaged another 122 since Thursday, the Rural Fire Service said.

Firefighters have taken advantage of milder conditions in recent days to reduce the number of fires threatening towns around Sydney from more than 100 on Thursday night to 61 on Sunday, Rural Fire Service spokesman Matt Sun said.

Fifteen of these fires continued to burn out of control, including the blaze near Lithgow, west of Sydney, which was given the highest danger ranking by the fire service. Authorities expect that blaze will continue to burn for days and have advised several nearby communities to consider evacuating ahead of worsening weather conditions.

Sun said temperatures in the fire zone on Sunday exceeded 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit), with winds reaching 20 kilometers per hour (12 miles per hour) and humidity dropping to 30 percent.
"It's not as dire as it could be, but it's certainly challenging work for firefighters and expected to get worse," Sun said.

The Defense Department, meanwhile, said it was investigating whether there was any link between the Lithgow fire, which started Wednesday, and military exercises using explosives at a nearby training range on the same day.

"Defense is investigating if the two events are linked," the department said in a statement on Saturday.
Sun said the cause of the fire was also under investigation by fire authorities and would be made public when determined.

Arson investigators are examining the origins of several of more than 100 fires that have threatened towns surrounding Sydney in recent days.

Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said the weather was forecast to deteriorate further over Monday and Tuesday.

"The worst of that weather will be probably culminating on Wednesday, but (there won't be) much relief in the intervening period," he told Australian Broadcasting Corp.

The wildfires have been extraordinarily intense and early in an annual fire season that peaks during the southern hemisphere summer, which begins in December.

Wildfires are common in Australia, though they don't tend to pop up in large numbers until the summer. This year's unusually dry winter and hotter than average spring have led to perfect fire conditions.

In February 2009, wildfires killed 173 people and destroyed more than 2,000 homes in Victoria state.

http://www.weather.com/news/dry-conditions-fan-flames-australia-wildfires-20131021

TOKYO -- A typhoon caused deadly mudslides that buried people and destroyed homes on a Japanese island Wednesday before sweeping up the Pacific coast, grounding hundreds of flights and disrupting Tokyo's transportation during the morning rush. At least 17 deaths were reported and nearly 50 people were missing.

Hardest hit from Typhoon Wipha was Izu Oshima island, which is about 75 miles south of Tokyo. Rescuers found 16 bodies, most of them buried by mudslides, police and town officials said. Dozens of homes were destroyed, and about 45 people were missing.

A woman from Tokyo died after falling into a river and being washed 6 miles downriver to Yokohama, police said. Two sixth-grade boys and another person were missing on Japan's main island, Honshu, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency said.

More than 350 homes were damaged or destroyed, including 283 on Izu Oshima, it said.
The typhoon, which stayed offshore in the Pacific, had sustained winds of 78 miles per hour, with gusts up to 110 mph, before it was downgraded to a tropical storm Wednesday evening. The storm was moving northeast, off the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido.

More than 80 centimeters (30 inches) of rain fell on Izu Oshima during a 24-hour period ending Wednesday morning, the most since record-keeping began in 1991.

The rainfall was particularly heavy before dawn, the kind in which "you can't see anything or hear anything," Japan Meteorological Agency official Yoshiaki Yano said.

Izu Oshima is the largest island in the Izu chain southwest of Tokyo. It has one of Japan's most active volcanoes, Mount Mihara, and is a major base for growing camellias. About 8,200 people live on the island, which is accessible by ferry from Tokyo.

Yutaka Sagara, a 59-year-old sushi chef on the east coast of the island, said he spent a sleepless night with colleagues at their company housing. Their hillside apartment barely escaped a mudslide that veered off to the side. Later he found out the mudslide crushed several houses as it flowed to the sea.

"People on this island are somewhat used to heavy rainstorms, but this typhoon was beyond our imagination," he said by phone.

Sagara came down to his seaside sushi restaurant on foot, wading through knee-deep mud, to check things out and make sushi for rescue workers.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, speaking to Parliament on Wednesday, vowed to do the utmost to rescue the missing and support the survivors, while trying to restore infrastructure and public services as quickly as possible. Japanese troops were deployed to the island, as well as Tokyo's "hyper-rescue" police with rescue dogs.

As a precaution, the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, crippled by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, released tons of rainwater that were being held behind protective barriers around storage tanks for radioactive water. Tokyo Electric Power Co., the plant's operator, said only water below an allowable level of radioactivity was released, which Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority allowed Tuesday. During an earlier typhoon in September, rainwater spilled out before it could be tested.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/typhoon-wipha-mudslides-kill-17-japan-50-missing-20131016

BHUBANESHWAR, India — A massive, powerful cyclone was hammering India's eastern coastline with heavy rains and destructive winds Saturday, as hundreds of thousands of people living in the region moved inland and took shelter, hoping to ride out the dangerous storm.

Roads were all but empty as high waves lashed the coastline of Orissa state, which will bear the brunt of Cyclone Phailin. By midafternoon, wind gusts were so strong that they could blow over grown men. Along the coast, seawater was pushing inland, swamping villages where many people survive as subsistence farmers in mud and thatch huts.

As the cyclone swept across the Bay of Bengal toward the Indian coast, satellite images showed its spinning tails covering an area larger than France.

Officials said early reports of deaths from Phailin won't become clear until after daybreak Sunday.

In Behrampur, a town about 7 miles inland from where the eye of the storm was expected to hit, the sky blackened quickly around the time of landfall, with heavy winds and rains pelting the empty streets.

A few hours before it hit land, the eye of the storm collapsed, spreading the hurricane force winds out over a larger area and giving it a "bigger damage footprint," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director at the U.S.-based private Weather Underground.
By Friday evening, some 420,000 people had been moved to higher ground or shelters in Orissa, and 100,000 more in neighboring Andhra Pradesh, said Indian Home Secretary Anil Goswami.
A storm surge — the giant wall of water that that a cyclone blasts ashore — of 20 feet or more is feared.

"Phailin may have 'weakened' prior to landfall, however its storm surge was already generated when it was a Category 5 equivalent tropical cyclone," said Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com.

A storm surge is the big killer in such storms, though heavy rains are likely to compound the destruction. The Indian government said some 12 million people would be affected by the storm, including millions living far from the coast.

A swath of 8 to 16 inches of rain likely to trigger life-threatening flash flooding, as well, as Phailin moves inland.

In Andhra Pradesh, the government evacuated at least 64,000 people from low-lying areas, said state Revenue Minister N. Raghuveera Reddy.

The sea had already pushed inland as much as 130 feet in parts of the state.

The storm is expected to cause large-scale power and communications outages and shut down road and rail links, officials said. It's also expected to cause extensive damage to crops.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/cyclone-phailin-20131011

A storm system digging into the West will bring unseasonably early snowfall to the mountains of southern California before swinging east and bringing the threat of severe weather to parts of the Plains.

California Snow

A cold area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will continue diving south through the West Coast, reaching southern California Wednesday evening before turning northeastward across the Four Corners region Thursday and into the Northern Plains on Friday.

The Pacific Northwest has already seen rain and high-elevation snow from this feature. This activity will dive south into California and Nevada on Wednesday, bringing rain to the lower elevations of those states.
For Los Angeles, this could become the first measurable precipitation (.01 inch of rain or more) since July 26.

The cold air in the upper atmosphere will bring snow to the Sierra Nevada, generally above 6,000 feet. Even farther south, the mountains of southern California could see some rare early-October snowfall.

Elevations above 6,000 feet in western San Bernardino County and western Riverside County could see a few inches of the white stuff Wednesday into Wednesday night as the system dives in. At Big Bear Lake, where official weather recordkeeping began in 1960, the earliest 1-inch snowfall on record was Oct. 10 back in 1985. If at least an inch of snow falls Wednesday, that record will be broken by a day.

Rockies Snow, Wind

As the storm makes a hard left turn and swings northeast toward the Rockies, it will bring snow to higher mountain elevations of Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and possibly southern Montana.

Low pressure will then intensify over the Plains and track roughly from eastern Colorado northeast through the Dakotas. While this storm track is very similar to Winter Storm Atlas, this system will not draw down as much cold air from Canada.

As a result, snow will have a difficult time reaching the lower elevations (say, below 6,000 feet) east of the Rockies. Places such as Casper, Wyo., and Rapid City, S.D., which saw crippling snowfall during Atlas, will likely see rain or a rain/snow mix from this storm system.

The rain, falling on areas that saw up to 5 feet of snow from Atlas, could potentially lead to some minor flooding problems in eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota.

Despite the lower threat of wintry weather for many, winds will still be a factor due to the strength of the low-pressure system. Sustained winds greater than 30 mph may occur in many areas just east of the Rockies. These blustery winds will blow from the south as the storm approaches, and then from the north or northwest as the storm passes by.

Winter Storm Atlas has delivered feet of snow from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. Here's a round up of the impacts of Atlas so far:

South Dakota

• According to The Associated Press, first responders in Rapid City were overwhelmed with calls for stuck vehicles and downed trees and power lines making some roads impassable. Police spokeswoman Tarah Heupel said snow and ice was accumulating on traffic signals, making the lights difficult to see.
• A report submitted to the National Weather Service Friday night said that there was widespread tree damage on the north side of Rapid City along with widespread power outages.
• The National Weather Service confirmed blizzard conditions occurred in Rapid City, with visibility of 1/8 mile for over three hours.
• Sustained winds reached 44 mph with gusts to 55 mph at the Rapid City airport before the sensor was knocked out of commission late Friday afternoon. As of Sunday morning the airport was still not reporting any weather data.
• All Rapid City schools were closed Friday due to impacts from Atlas.
• Interstate 90 was closed between Murdo and the Wyoming state line as of Friday night.
• Wind gusts up to 70 mph accompanied the heavy snow in western South Dakota

Snowfall Totals:
Deadwood – 48"
Lead – 43.5”
Spearfish – 26"
Rapid City – 23.1" officially; locally up to 31" just southwest of town
Downtown Rapid City – The official 23.1" total makes this the second heaviest snowstorm on record in the city. Nearly six months ago they recorded their now third heaviest snowstorm on record with 22.4" from April 8-10, 2013.

Wyoming

• The Associated Press reported that heavy snow snapped tree limbs that knocked out power lines in parts of the state, causing thousands of people to lose power.
• The snow and wind closed many highways in eastern Wyoming.

Snowfall Totals:
Around 30 inches fell in the southern Big Horn Mountains and on Casper Mountain, according to the National Weather Service.
Reno Hill (elevation 7900 feet, 22 miles southeast of Casper) – 34"
Sundance – 24”
Lusk – 20" with drifts up to 8 feet
Lander – 17"
Casper – 16.2" makes this their heaviest snowstorm on record so early in the season; the third-heaviest October snowstorm; and the 10th-heaviest overall in Casper weather records.

Montana

Snowfall Totals:
Pony – 32”
Limestone – 30"
Fishtail – 18”
Near Big Sky – 17"

Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota (Top Snow Totals)

Collbran, Colo. – 12.5”
Crawford, Neb. – 13"
Mott and Elgin, N.D. – 12"

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-atlas-your-reports-20131003

The calendar may have just turned to October, however, Winter Storm Atlas is poised to bring heavy snow to the northern Rockies, some snow even at lower elevations, and perhaps the season's first snow to parts of the Northern Plains.

As you can see in our snowfall forecast map at right, the heaviest snow accumulations from Winter Storm Atlas are expected to be over the highest elevations of southern Montana, Wyoming and far northern Colorado. More than a foot of total snow is likely over the Tetons, Bighorns and Beartooth Ranges of Wyoming and far southwest Montana, as well as the Black Hills of South Dakota and mountains of far northern Colorado.

With that said, significant accumulations, possibly more than six inches, are also expected over some lower-elevation cities including Casper, Cheyenne and Laramie, Wyo.

As the winter storm treks east, the forecast for snow in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest becomes more dicey, typical of an early or late-season event.

There's a chance that we could see rain change to or mix with snow at times from the Dakotas into western Nebraska Friday into Saturday. This will be dependent on how much cold air comes southward from Canada in combination with how much cold air the storm can generate itself.

If this happens, there is a potential for at least one, if not several inches of wet snow from western Nebraska into western and central South Dakota, and perhaps a small part of North Dakota.
If any snowflakes do fly through the air, it would be the first of the season for parts of this region, and would be among the earliest one-inch-plus snowfalls on record for locations such as Pierre, S.D.

If that wasn't enough, strong winds will pick up Thursday night, and continue through much of Friday and Friday night in these areas.

The combination of wet, heavy snow and strong winds will not lead to reduced visibility with local blizzard conditions in parts of Wyoming, the mountains of far northern Colorado and the Black Hills of South Dakota from late Thursday through Friday night.

In addition, the weight of wet snow and force from strong winds will lead to some downed trees or tree limbs, particularly on trees still yet to drop their leaves. Power outages will also be an issue in these areas.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-atlas-forecast-20131001

VERACRUZ, Mexico -- Two tropical systems were converging on Mexico's east and west coasts Saturday, sparking authorities to evacuate coastal residents and set up shelters while watching rising rivers.

Hurricane Ingrid was gathering strength off Mexico's Gulf Coast, with forecasters predicting further increases in speed. They said Ingrid would likely become a hurricane Saturday afternoon.

"Mexico will have to deal with not just one, but two, tropical entities," said weather.com meteorologist Chrissy Warrilow. "Ingrid will be lashing the eastern coast bringing as much as two feet of rain to areas already inundated by Tropical Storm Ferdinand and Tropical Depression 8."

Though Ingrid will likely make landfall in Mexico, the U.S. will still see some impact.
"U.S. cities including Brownsville and Corpus Christi by heavy rain and wind from Ingrid."

A hurricane watch is in effect north of Cabo Rojo to La Pesca. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Coatzacoalcos to Cabo Rojo.

Manuel is expected to produce 10 to 15 inches of rain over parts of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely.

"Manuel will be moving into areas of Mexico with lots of mountainous features," said Warrilow. "Heavy rain, mudslides, and dangerous flash flooding are expected to occur.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Tropical Storm Humberto were swirling in the Atlantic, far from land. It was expected to regenerate in a couple of days, according to the Hurricane Center.

In Veracruz state off the Gulf Coast, state officials were evacuating communities in eight cities near the Tecolutla river where authorities reported higher-than-normal water levels.

State officials said they had also opened 12 shelters where they've directed some 1,000 people. Many have opted to stay with relatives and others.

A bridge collapsed near the northern Veracruz city of Misantla Friday, cutting off the area from the state capital. Thirteen people died when a landslide buried their homes in heavy rains spawned by Tropical Depression Fernand on Monday.

State officials imposed an orange alert, the highest possible, in parts of southern Veracruz.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/two-tropical-storms-converge-mexico-20130914

LA PINTADA, Mexico — Armed with shovels, hydraulic equipment and anything else they can muster, search crews are desperately digging in La Pintada, searching for victims of a massive landslide; sixty-eight people were still among the missing as of Monday morning.

The Mexican army's emergency response and rescue team slogged in several feet of mud and incessant rain with rescue dogs, recovering a total of five bodies as of Sunday, including a man found wedged under the collapsed roof of a dirt-filled home.

La Pintada was the scene of the single greatest tragedy in destruction wreaked by the twin storms, Manuel and Ingrid, which simultaneously pounded both of Mexico's coasts a week ago, spawning huge floods and landslides across a third of the country. The official death toll has grown to 115, the Interior Ministry said Sunday night.

"As of today, there is little hope now that we will find anyone alive," President Enrique Pena Nieto said after touring the devastation at La Pintada, adding that the landslide covered at least 40 homes.
Survivors staying at a shelter in Acapulco recounted how a tidal wave of dirt, rocks and trees exploded through the center of town, burying families in their homes and sweeping wooden houses into the bed of the swollen river that winds past the village on its way to the Pacific

The scene by Sunday was desolate, a ghost town where 50 people still awaited evacuation. One man remained to care for abandoned goats, pigs and chickens that seemed disoriented as they roamed about.

"The fundamental problem continues to be the rain," said Ricardo de La Cruz, national director of Civil Protection. "It complicates the rescue work not only by putting residents at risk, but the military and support crews as well."

http://www.weather.com/news/tropical-disaster-mexico-update-death-toll-rises-115-20130923

Typhoon Usagi, a strong tropical cyclone in the western Pacific Ocean, has made landfall in China's Guangdong Province in the city of Shanwei, about 90 miles east-northeast of Kowloon, Hong Kong.

The typhoon is weakening over land, with winds now equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane. Based on Chinese radar imagery, landfall appeared to occur Sunday evening between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. Hong Kong time (7 a.m. and 8 a.m. EDT U.S. time).

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, as of 11 p.m. Hong Kong time Sunday (11 a.m. EDT Sunday U.S. time), Usagi was centered near Huizhou City, Guangdong, or 60 miles northeast of Kowloon, Hong Kong. It is moving toward the west-northwest at 18 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph.

Usagi will continue to track toward the west to west-northwest. This track will take the center of Usagi just north of Hong Kong overnight Sunday into Monday local time; that is when the center will make its closest approach to Hong Kong.

The storm has already dumped more than a foot of rain in parts of Taiwan and is blamed for the deaths of two people in The Philippines. Usagi will pack very strong winds and heavy rain, both of which present significant danger to those in the storm's path.

A tropical cyclone is dubbed a "super typhoon" when maximum sustained winds reach at least 150 mph. Usagi underwent a period of rapid intensification from early Wednesday through midday Thursday (U.S. Eastern time), going from a 55-knot (65-mph) tropical storm to a 140-knot (160-mph) super typhoon in just 33 hours, or just under a 100 mph intensification, based on satellite estimates of intensity.
By Friday night, though, Usagi underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, causing the storm to weaken slightly. In addition, the outer rain bands began to interact with Taiwan and Luzon, disrupting the storm's low-level inflow, further weakening the storm.
On Saturday, animated multi-spectral satellite imagery indicated a resurgence in the storm's eyewall development, but the typhoon was never able to regain its former power before making landfall.
Here are the impacts by location for Usagi:

Hong Kong

• Airlines Cathay Pacific and Dragonair announced Saturday they would halt all flights in and out of Hong Kong from 6 p.m. Sunday.
• Closest approach of center of Usagi: Monday morning around 1 a.m. Hong Kong time (Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT in the U.S.)
• A sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (123 km/h) was reported at Cheung Chau, Hong Kong, at 9 p.m. Sunday local time.
• Impacts: Tropical storm force winds of 40 to 70 mph are occurring in some areas, along with hurricane-force gusts. Hong Kong's complex terrain and numerous skyscrapers will cause winds to be higher in some places and lower in others. Periods of heavy rain will occur as well.
• Northwesterly winds will become southwesterly Monday morning (local time) as the center of Usagi passes north and then northwest of Hong Kong.
• Local forecast: Hong Kong

Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated places in the world, with over 7.1 million residents, as of a 2012 estimate.

China

• Guangdong Province, where landfall occurred, is taking the brunt of Usagi's impact. The population of Guangdong is about 105 million, making it the third most populous province or state in the world (the top two are in India).
• A station pressure of 938.9 millibars, or about 940 millibars at sea level, was measured near the point of landfall in the city of Shanwei at 8 p.m. Hong Kong time Sunday. Shanwei is a coastal city of over 2 million people.
• The center of Usagi will move west or west-northwest through the major cities of the Pearl River Delta, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, with winds gusting to hurricane force and heavy rainfall.
• China's government weather agency is forecasting 4 to 10 inches of rainfall across much of Guangdong Province along the path of Usagi.
• Local forecast: Guangzhou

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/typhoon-usagi-threatens-taiwan-hong-kong-20130919?fb_ref=local-fb-activity