Leslie and Isaac's remnants both lurking
Sep 4, 2012 5:06 pm ET
Graphical tropical update: Tropics Watch
LESLIE
- Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with upper-level winds that are producing "shear" (unfavorable for tropical storm strengthening), but it has a large enough surface wind circulation to send ocean waves all the way the East Coast of the U.S. along with an elevated risk of rip currents.
- Leslie will sit and spin, not moving much this week but likely getting stronger. Then, its circulation is also large enough that, along with the expected track, there is little doubt that Bermuda will be directly affected by this weekend. How much so will depend on the exact track and intensity at that time.
- In the longer range, models have trended toward a predicted outcome in which Leslie likely does not miss North America, given the expected steering flow and how far to the east the Canadian Maritimes stick out. There'd still be the question of exactly what the track of the center is: where in the Maritimes, if that's where it goes, as well as how close it comes to, and how much effect there would be in, New England. The track details will depend on how energy associated with current Alaska storminess cascades downstream into a sharp southward dip (trough) in the jet stream which will be developing over the eastern U.S., with Leslie being steered in a pathway in between that and a strong ridge of high pressure northeast of the storm.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
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