Sunday, April 28, 2013

Severe Weather Outlook




CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
   D4/WED AFTERNOON FROM SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX. PATTERN SHOULD ALSO
   SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS THAT WILL
   PROVE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE/ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN ANTICIPATED
   MAGNITUDE OF DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SPREADING INTO THE
   REGION. SITUATION SHOWS SOME SIMILARITIES TO RECENT 17 APRIL SRN
   PLAINS EVENT PERHAPS DISPLACED FARTHER SOUTH AND WITH POSSIBLY
   WEAKER SHEAR. NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER MOISTURE
   ACROSS TX SHOULD FUEL INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AND
   BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT SURGES INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH WED NIGHT
   AND INTO THU MORNING.
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO D5/THU ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
   INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT STRONGER FORCING APPEARS TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH TIME
   AS THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE BEGINS TO CUTOFF OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT PLAINS. INCREASING SPREAD IN GUIDANCE IN THE HANDLING OF THE
   SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH D6/FRI AND
   D7/SAT PRECLUDE ADDING ADDITIONAL OUTLOOK AREAS AT THIS FORECAST
   RANGE.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/


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