Our planet is likely to experience as much as 20 percent more warming by the end of the century than previously estimated, according to a study released this week in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change
Despite the recent slowdown in global warming, during which surface temperatures worldwide since 2000 have risen much more slowly than in previous decades, the study found that Earth's climate system may have a higher sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions than a wide range of past estimates indicate.
The study looked primarily at two things: how aerosols both cool and warm the atmosphere, and the sensitivity of the Earth's transient climate response to changes in the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere.
During this time, emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHGs in the atmosphere have only increased, a fact that has prompted suggestions that Earth's climate system may not be as sensitive to increasing GHG emissions as once thought.
If his study is correct, over the long term the planet is actually more sensitive to increasing GHG emissions than previously thought, which means that a doubling of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will cause temperatures to rise by 1.3°C to 1.7°C (2.34°F to 3.06°F).
http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/add-20-percent-long-term-global-warming-estimates-says-study-20140311
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