Monday, March 31, 2014

March 2014 Tornado Count Well Below Average

Why the Tornado Drought?

Essentially the same pattern responsible for a persistently cold and snowy winter in parts of the U.S. also, for the most part, squashed the threat of severe weather through the first three weeks of March.
A pronounced southward dip in the polar jet stream has frequently driven cold air into the Gulf of Mexico, as a powerful northward diversion of the jet stream has persisted in the eastern Pacific Ocean and western U.S. This is the polar opposite of a pattern which would favor severe weather in the southern states during winter.
As a result, deeper, richer Gulf moisture can't flow northward into the southern U.S. ahead of a strong jet-stream level disturbance. Shallow, meager moisture, with weak instability lends itself to damaging straight-line winds in any severe thunderstorms that have developed, rather than tornadic supercells.
However, history shows that a slow start to the year doesn't signal a quiet period is ahead. Both 2012 and 2013 featured at least 400 less U.S. tornadoes than the 10-year average. Despite that apparent tornado drought, we had the following destructive events:
  • Mar. 2-3, 2012: EF4 in Henryville, Ind.; EF3 in West Liberty, Ky.
  • May 15, 2013: EF4 in Granbury, Texas
  • May 19-20, 2013: EF5 in Moore, Okla.
  • May 31, 2013: EF3 in El Reno, Okla.
  • Nov, 17, 2013: EF4 in Washington, Ill. 
How long can 2014 stay quiet?
Tornado drought pattern
http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/march-tornadoes-may-set-record-low-20140321

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