Today we compare the NOAA and JAMSTEC forecast through March - April - May 2016. The JAMSTEC forecast for CONUS is colder and wetter than NOAA's forecast. The JAMSTEC information identifies areas of the World with significant deviations from climatology (normal). Whether or not the actual weather works out as either of these forecasts suggests is an open question. Over the next two weeks, the NOAA forecast has, according to NOAA a low level of confidence and the analog analysis in this report suggests why. This is the Regular Edition of my weekly Weather and Climate Update Report. Additional information can be found here on Page II of the Global Economic IntersectionWeather and Climate Report. NOAA issued an updated Seasonal Outlook on September 17. The JAMSTEC (Japanese) analysis is also available. Let us compare them. First let's take look at the ONI forecasts which is the most widely available measure of the strength of an El Nino (or La Nina) and is the deviation of the sea surface temperature from climatology (normal) in a small part of the Eastern Pacific along the Equator considered to be the best place to assess the strength of an ENSO phase whether it be El Nino, ENSO Neutral, or La Nina. First the NOAA forecast of conditions in the Nino 3.4 area which defines the ONI Index http://econintersect.com/pages/weather/weather.php?post=201509280038