Monday, October 3, 2016

Hurricane Matthew's Catastrophic Haiti Strike Imminent; Hurricane Warnings in Cuba and Bahamas; Southeast U.S. Impacts Possible

Hurricane Matthew's potentially catastrophic strike on Haiti is imminent, and it will also impact parts of Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Late this week and into the weekend, portions of the coastal southeastern U.S. states could see impacts from Matthew. Interests from Florida to the coastal Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew very closely. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its 5 p.m. advisory Monday, "While there remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has increased."

U.S. Threat?

Beyond that, it remains uncertain how close Matthew's eyewall will pass near the northwest Bahamas later Thursday into Friday, and it is still too soon to determine how big the danger will be in parts of the U.S. late this week and next weekend. (MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts For the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted) For now, ensemble forecast guidance suggests we can't rule out at least tropical storm-force winds along the eastern Florida coast in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.

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