https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/09/180904150403.htm
Allen's latest findings build on his 2017 research that concluded global warming will bring increased winter precipitation to California through the end of this century.
The findings are outlined in a paper by Allen and his co-author Ray Anderson, research soil scientist at the USDA-ARS US Salinity Lab, titled "21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection." It was published September 3 in Climate and Atmospheric Science.
The paper focuses on how "greenhouse-gas-induced climate change" will affect drought conditions in the state. The findings are based on 40 climate models that were compared to actual precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow in the state between 1950 and 2000.
Historically, about 90 percent of California's rain and snow have come during the winter months of December, January, and February, Allen said, with sporadic rain scattered over the rest of the year. But now, warming surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are expected to amplify the rainy season by sending stormy El Niño conditions over the state in the winter.
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