Oct 8, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC AC 081730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
   REGIONS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat for strong to severe storms are expected Tuesday from the
   southern Plains through the middle and upper Mississippi Valley into
   the upper Great Lakes region.

   ...Southern Plains through middle and upper Mississippi Valley and
   Great Lakes regions...

   High amplitude upper trough centered over the Great Basin region
   will begin to accelerate northeast through the central and southern
   Plains later Tuesday afternoon and evening in response to an
   upstream trough that will move south through the Pacific Northwest.
   At the surface, an expansive frontal zone will extend from west TX
   northeast through IA into WI. Cyclogenesis is expected along the IA
   portion of the boundary later Tuesday in response to forcing for
   ascent accompanying an upper jet rotating through base of the upper
   trough. The trailing cold front should begin to accelerate east
   through the central and southern Plains during the afternoon in
   association with this process.

   A moist surface layer with dewpoints from the low 70s F in TX to the
   upper 60s over the Great Lakes will reside in the expansive warm
   sector. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
   primarily within zone of deeper forcing along baroclinic zone from
   west TX into the Central Plains and upper MS Valley areas. Despite
   expected presence of multi-layer clouds in the moist warm sector,
   some breaks are anticipated which should boost MLCAPE to 1500-2000
   J/kg. Current indications are that storms will intensify within
   frontal zone as the atmosphere destabilizes over the southern and
   central Plains during the afternoon and expand east and northeast
   during the evening and overnight. Increase in frontogenetic forcing
   associated with the ejecting upper jet coupled with the northward
   migrating low-level jet will promote numerous thunderstorm
   development including upscale growth into line segments. Activity
   will be embedded within strengthening largely unidirectional wind
   profiles with 35-40 KT effective bulk shear supportive of organized
   structures including embedded supercells and bowing segments.
   Damaging wind appears to be the main threat, but a few tornadoes
   will also be possible, especially where 0-1 km hodographs are
   augmented in vicinity of the northward developing low-level jet.

   ...Florida...

   The National Hurricane Center forecast is for Michael to continue on
   a general north northeast track through Tuesday. Based on this, the
   outer bands of Michael will likely begin to affect the FL Panhandle
   and western FL coastal areas later Tuesday or Tuesday night along
   with an increase in low-level shear. This suggests a threat for a
   few tornadoes and locally damaging wind gusts may increase later in
   the day 2 period.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

-Posted by: Ciela Marie Acala