Tornado season has been pretty bland so far, but one has to remember that it peaks in May and June. Already people are thinking a ‘death ridge’ will set up and this just will not be the case.
Death ridge years mean a ridge of high pressure is parked over the Rocky Mountains during May, which makes it hard for rich gulf moisture to make it northward into tornado alley. Last year featured such a pattern. This year, especially Memorial Day Weekend; should feature a tornado outbreak pattern.
After the low kicks out in the beginning of the month, a jet stream pattern from Japan and Russia will dive into the Western United States. As this happens, tornado outbreaks will be likely.
I’m sticking to the prediction of this year being above average for tornadoes during tornado season, which shifts north to the Midwest and Northern Plains after June for the deeper Summer months.
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