Cyclone Nilofar is steadily gaining strength in the Arabian Sea about 750 miles south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.
Nilofar: Current Information
As of early Tuesday morning local time (9.5 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern time), Nilofar had strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane, with winds estimated at 105 mph, according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
(MORE: Tropical Terms You Need to Know)
Incidentally, the term "hurricane" is not used in this case.
Nilofar is expected to begin a track toward the north or north-northwest through late Tuesday under the steering influence of an upper-level high pressure system centered over southern India. During this time, Nilofar will be experiencing minimal wind shear and is, therefore, expected to intensify to a equivalent tropical cyclone.
By mid-week, Nilofar will then curl sharply and accelerate toward the east-northeast, as upper-level jet stream winds grab hold of the cyclone. On this track, Nilofar is likely to pass well to the east of the Arabian Peninsula.
Nilofar: Forecast Path
These jet stream winds will impart increasing vertical wind shear, and drier air may also work into the cyclone. Both of these factors are expected to weaken Nilofar by the time it makes landfall somewhere along the coast of India's Gujarat state or extreme southeast Pakistan Thursday.
The (IMD) -- the agency responsible for tropical cyclone advisories in the northern Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea -- has issued a yellow message cyclone alert for the northern coast of India's Gujarat state.
The IMD warned of "extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts" near the landfall location of Nilofar Thursday and urged fishermen along and off the Gujarat coast to return to port. Coastal hut dwellers were urged to move to safer location.
The warned of isolated heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds in the Lower Sindh including Karachi, and coastal areas of Balochistan from Wednesday night into Friday.
Karachi, one of the world's most populous megacities (2014 population estimate: 23.5 million), only averages about 7.9 inches of rain each year. Depending on the track of Nilofar, over one inch of total rainfall is possible, which could trigger flash flooding.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/cyclone-nilofar-india-pakistan-forecast-20141027
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