Two Tropical Cyclones In Less Than A Week? How Rare Is That?

Back-to-back tropical cyclones may pass very near or over Bermuda in less than a week's time.

Fay's high winds downed trees in Bermuda on Oct. 12, 2014. (Dr. Peter Neilley/The Weather Company)

Hurricane Gonzalo Forecast Path

Hurricane Gonzalo Forecast Path

Think about that for a moment.
Two or more tropical storm or hurricane strikes in one location during any single season is quite unusual outside of western Pacific hot spots such as the northern Philippines, southeast China, Japan or Guam.
Bermuda, about 665 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, may experience this in a span of roughly five days this week.
Sunday morning, Oct. 12, Tropical Storm Fay battered the archipelago with wind gusts up to 120 mph, downing trees, power lines, knocking out power to roughly half of Bermuda and damaging the terminal roof at L.F. Wade International Airport.
"Huge piles of debris are showing up everywhere as residents clear their property," says Dr. Peter Neilley, vice president of Global Forecasting Services for The Weather Company, who was in Bermuda when Fay hit. "This debris may be hazardous if Gonzalo hits."
Hurricane Gonzalo is now targeting Bermuda. Depending on the exact track, Gonzalo could deliver an even harsher strike on Bermuda late this week.
(FORECASTS: Hurricane Gonzalo | Bermuda)

Tracks of Emily and Floyd near Bermuda in early September 1981.

It's Happened Before

While it seems bizarre to have two tropical cyclones in a week (or less) in Bermuda, it has happened before.
A search of the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) best track database found one other time dating to the mid 1850s in which back-to-back tropical cyclones tracked within 75 miles of Hamilton, Bermuda.
Tropical Storm Emily, which later became a hurricane, made its closest approach just northwest Bermuda the evening of Sept. 1, 1981. Less than seven days later, Hurricane Floyd passed just south of Hamilton on the morning of Sept. 8.
Neither Emily nor Floyd produced any significant damage in Bermuda. The same certainly cannot be said of Fay, and potentially Gonzalo.
Fay and Gonzalo would be the closest-in-time, back-to-back tropical cyclones to track within 75 miles of Bermuda on record.
Prior to 2014, two or more tropical storms or hurricanes hadn't tracked that close to Bermuda in any season, never mind within one week, since 1987.
In fact, only 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons have featured multiple tropical storms or hurricanes within 75 miles of Bermuda dating to the mid 1850s.
Recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones, those curling north then northeast into the open north Atlantic Ocean steered by either the western edge of the Bermuda-Azores high and/or a southward dip in the jet stream near or off the U.S. East Coast, are quite common.
However, Bermuda occupies a footprint of only 21 square miles, a pretty small target for tropical cyclones.
Apparently, it may not be small enough for Fay and Gonzalo in mid October 2014.