Gulf of Mexico Low: Heavy Rain Threat for South Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

Gulf of Mexico Low: Heavy Rain Threat for South Florida, Cuba, and Mexico

 

This system is expected to slowly move east to east-northeast and be near the Yucatan Peninsula midweek. It may then interact and possibly merge with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
Later in the week, the path of the low pressure could bring it closer to Florida, enhancing rainfall through at least Friday and possibly into the weekend. By that time, it's unlikely to be a tropical cyclone, given the likelihood of merging with the frontal system

Part of this low has come from Trudy, which made landfall in southwestern Mexico on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and deadly mudslides. It is possible that if it does develop it could retain the name Trudy or it could become Tropical Depression Nine and then possibly strengthen into Tropical Storm Hanna.
Conditions are generally favorable for development, as water temperatures are warm and wind shear is expected to be low in the region. However, just to the north of this system, over the next few days, there will be strong upper-level winds and very dry air, which are not conducive to tropical development.

Regardless of whether this low pressure develops into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, locally heavy rain remains possible in south Florida, especially Thursday and Friday. Even Tuesday and Wednesday rain chances will be higher than usual for this time of year in southernmost parts of Florida due to the tropical moisture that will be over the region.
Heavy rain was already reported on Monday night with the Florida Keys Marathon Airport reporting over four inches of rain. Parts of West Palm Beach picked up over 7 inches of rain Tuesday.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/heavy-rain-south-florida-gulf-mexico-tropical-threat-20141020