A disturbance (INVEST IO90) in the Arabian Sea has been slowly developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the last few days, and appears very close to reaching Tropical Depression intensity. The developing storm is located about 600NM SE of the Oman coast, and remains quasi-stationary. Most models are showing intensification to a CAT 1 storm over the next 72 hours, and is forecast to move towards the OMAN coast by Tuesday. After which, the storm should turn northeast and accelerate away from the coast and weaken quickly to minimal tropical storm intensity (or depression) by next Thursday. It’s worth mentioning that latest imagery loops suggest very dry air is approaching from the Northwest – and this may prevent the storm from intensifying beyond Tropical Storm (gale) force – AND prevent the system from even approaching the Oman coast before it turns Northeast and weakens. Tropical Storms in this region of the world are unusual – but they are not rare ,
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2842
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