A tropical storm watch has been issued for parts of Baja California as Tropical Storm Simon curves toward land. However, Simon's most significant impact may be well inland and several days in the future. Tropical Storm Simon is weakening rapidly after earlier becoming the eighth major hurricane and sixth Category 4 hurricane of the 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Simon continues to churn northeastward less than 200 miles off the central Baja California coast and will spin down over colder water, likely becoming a remnant low before it ever makes landfall by Tuesday. However, as a precaution, the government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia on the west coast of Baja California. In this somewhat unusual case, it means tropical storm-force winds are possible in the next 12 to 24 hours if Simon does not weaken as rapidly as forecast. The area in the watch is sparsely populated, with three fishing villages totaling roughly 5,000 residents. Large swells, high surf and rip currents will continue along the Baja coast, as well as some beaches of Southern California (for at least the third time this season) through Tuesday before subsiding. Other than some lingering high surf, Simon poses no further threat to storm-weary Los Cabos, Mexico. However, the main threat to other land interests is now increasing even as Simon's demise as a tropical cyclone is near.
Another Southwest U.S. Flood Threat
First, heavy rainfall will spread into the central Baja peninsula, then into northwest Mexico's Sonora state. Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture from Simon, as well as lift from its leftover mid-level circulation, will spread clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms into parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado from late Tuesday through Friday.
If this sounds like a familiar story, you're right. We've recently dealt with flooding from the remnants of Hurricane Odile and Hurricane Norbert. In addition, there have been a number of other flash flood events this summer in the Desert Southwest.In fact, the remnant mid-level impulse and moisture from Simon may also give a boost to locally heavy rainfall in parts of the Southern Plains, Ozarks, even Tennessee Valley late this week.
Brief History
First designated Tropical Depression Nineteen-E on Oct. 1, the system strengthened to Tropical Storm Simon early the following morning. By late on Oct. 3, Simon became the eastern Pacific season's 13th hurricane. By the afternoon of Oct. 4, based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft carrying meteorologists from the Mexican government flying inside the storm, the National Hurricane Center determined that Simon had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, making it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
After the plane left, Simon's satellite presentation improved further, and sophisticated algorithms using satellite data led the NHC to upgrade Simon to a Category 4 hurricane at 8 p.m. PDT Sunday, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. (The Category 4 threshold was tweaked from 131 mph to 130 mph in 2012 to resolve a technical issue regarding conversions between different units of wind measurement.)
http://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-simon-mexico-pacific-20141002?
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