Record high vertical wind shear, which tends to rip apart developing or mature tropical cyclones, has been in place over the Caribbean Sea, according to Colorado State University's Dr. Philip Klotzbach (Wunderblog).
Early next week, the upper-level wind pattern will feature a southward dip of the southern-branch jet stream centered over Texas and northern Mexico, with weak high pressure aloft centered somewhere between the Bahamas and Bermuda.
Low pressure at the surface may form somewhere near the Yucatan peninsula and get pulled north by the upper-air pattern mentioned above.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/gulf-of-mexico-disturbance-tropical-development-sep2015
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