On this week's episode of the "Where Did You Get This Number?"
podcast, David Parkinson, weather producer at CBS News, discussed the
science and challenges behind weather forecasting with host Anthony
Salvanto, CBS News' director of Elections and Surveys.
Parkinson
said many people have misconceptions about how the weather is predicted,
often ignoring the numbers and basing their day plans on the tiny icon
they see on their weather apps.
"People are really bad about
data," Parkinson said. "If we say that it's a 50-50 chance of rain, that
means 5 out of every 10 of those days it would rain, and 5 out of every
10 of those days it won't rain. It doesn't mean there will be rain for
half of the day, which is what some people think."
So what can weather reporters do to push people to make the right
decisions when disasters are involved and it becomes a matter of life
and death? Parkinson says it comes down to making massive sets of data
comprehensible to the average viewer.
"It's about taking those numbers and communicating a story about them," Parkinson said.
Parkinson
also referenced a study which found viewers would rather hear every
prediction, good or bad, than not know at all. He suggested weather
reporters just take their best shot.
"People will expect you to be
wrong but they still want to hear what you have to say," Parkinson
said. "They won't blame you for predicting incorrectly, unless you
predicted something outrageously bad."
Parkinson recommended
viewers to become more weather literate by visiting their local weather
service website and reading their forecast discussions.
"They go
through great pains to explain how they have come up with their
forecasts," Parkinson said.
"That gives you a real glimpse into the
process of making the forecast."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/weather-forecasting-hurricanes-snowstorms-where-did-you-get-this-number-podcast/
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