Typhoon Vongfong: Guam, Japan Threat?

Vongfong may follow closely in the footsteps of Typhoon Phanfone, potentially threatening Guam and Japan in the days ahead. Vongfong was first designated a tropical depression early Thursday, local time, and is slowly gaining strength over 800 miles east-southeast of Guam. By Saturday, Vonfong strengthened into a typhoon, with wind speeds similar to a Category 1 equivalent hurricane (75 mph estimated max winds).
Vongfong will maintain a northwest track through the weekend under the steering influence of a subtropical high pressure aloft to its north.
With low vertical wind shear (change in wind speed and/or direction with height), impressive outflow (winds in the upper levels spreading apart from the center, favoring upward motion and thunderstorms) and warm western Pacific water, Vongfong will continue to intensify over the next several days.

Guam Impact

On its present track, the center of Vongfong would reach the longitude of Guam and the Mariana Islands sometime Monday. While the most likely forecast track of the center places it near the islands of Saipan and Tinian Monday, inherent uncertainty, as always, exists in track forecasts several days out. Furthermore, tropical cyclones are not points, but have broad wind fields extending from the center of circulation.
Any southward deviation of Vongfong's track may bring stronger winds, possibly to typhoon-force, over Guam Monday. Bands of heavy rain, some surge flooding and high surf are also threats with Vongfong Monday.
Interests in Guam and the Mariana Islands should monitor closely the progress of Vongfong. Tropical storm and/or typhoon watches and warnings may be issued by the National Weather Service.

Japan Again?

After passing the Mariana Islands, Vongfong will then track over roughly the same patch of western Pacific water Typhoon Phanfone churned up.
It seems a good bet Vongfong will intensify into another formidable typhoon before potentially threatening parts of Japan late next week.
Once again it may come down to how sharp and soon a turn to the north and northeast occurs to determine if and how much of a strike Japan has to bear from this latest system late next week.
It is far too soon to speculate on potential impacts to Japan from Vongfong. Stay with The Weather Channel and weather.com for more on this potentially dangerous system.