Thursday, October 2, 2014

Typhoon Phanfone Threatens Japan, Tokyo This Weekend


Phanfone strengthened from a Category 1 equivalent typhoon (75 mph estimated max winds) early Wednesday evening, local time (Japan is 13 hours ahead of U.S. EDT) to a Category 4 equivalenttyphoon (130 mph estimated max winds) early Thursday evening, local time, a jump of 55 mph (or 50 knots) in 24 hours.
"Phanfone had the dreaded pinhole eye rarely seen in tropical cyclones," said The Weather Channel hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. "The eye was so small even our best microwave satellites have trouble seeing it."
Typhoon Phanfone will continue to be in a favorable environment of low wind shear and high sea-surface temperatures through Friday. Therefore, additional strengthening is possible, possibly to super typhoon status (150 mph max sustained winds) for a brief time.
It should be noted intense tropical cyclones often go through eyewall replacement cycles, where a new outer eyewall cuts off, then replaces the old, inner eyewall. Tropical cyclones typically weaken a bit during this process, and the timing of these cycles is not able to be forecast using current technology.
Regardless of all that, the forecast track of this intense typhoon is critical.

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