Weather Service hits bull's-eye with tornado forecast

The National Weather Service's detailed forecast of a deadly tornado outbreak across the central USA proved highly accurate. Late Sunday, one or more deadly tornadoes hit Arkansas, killing at least 14 people as the storms roared on the ground for about 80 miles.



On average, the tornado warning lead time – the time between when a warning is issued and when the tornado hits ground – is now about 13 minutes, the weather service reports. Warnings are issued for about 75% of all tornadoes, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society reports. As recently as 1986, average tornado warning lead time was approximately five minutes and warnings were issued for only 25% of tornadoes. False alarms remain an issue. Only one of five tornado warnings actually are followed by a twister, according to a 2011 study in the journal Weather and Forecasting.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/04/28/tornado-warnings-arkansas/8419959/