Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Is Sandy a U.S. Threat?


Sandy continues to spin in the Caribbean Sea, however, Sandy's impacts may not simply be limited to the Caribbean and Bahamas.  There's a potential Sandy's "post-tropical" phase may more significantly impact parts of the East Coast.
Let's break down the timeline for Sandy, starting with its Caribbean impact, then going into two potential scenarios for the cyclone beyond its "tropical" life.
Background

Caribbean Satellite

Caribbean Satellite
Through late Thursday or Friday, Sandy will track northward in the Caribbean, possibly strengthening into a hurricane before the center tracks over Jamaica Wednesday and eastern Cuba Thursday.  
Sandy's center is then forecast to arrive into the central Bahamas overnight Thursday night into Friday.  
Other than potential hurricane-force winds in Jamaica and eastern Cuba as the center nears those locations, another major threat from Sandy will be heavy rain, flash flooding, and mudslides, generally to the north and east of the center's track.
This is particularly a threat over the higher terrain of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.  Heavy rain will also soak much of the Bahamas to the tune of 5-10" or more.  

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