Washington Mudslide Update: Death Toll Rises, Weather Conditions Could Aid Search Efforts

 http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/massive-mudslide-washington-community-20140323



The number of confirmed dead in one of the deadliest landslides in U.S. history rose to 24 Monday with 22 people still unaccounted for. The remains of three additional victims were found Monday, but they have not yet been included in the medical examiner's official numbers, Snohomish County Executive Director Gary Haakenson told reporters at a Monday evening briefing.
The county sheriff's office released a list Monday evening of 22 people believed missing following the March 22 slide that destroyed a rural mountainside community northeast of Seattle. That's down from the 30 people officials previously considered missing.
"There's been an exhaustive effort by the detectives to narrow the list down to one that they feel comfortable releasing," Haakenson said.
Steve Harris, a division supervisor for the search effort, said Monday that search teams have been learning more about the force of the slide, helping them better locate victims in a debris field that is 70 feet deep in places.
"There's a tremendous amount of force and energy behind this," Harris said of the slide
Search efforts have also been hampered by the persistent rain in the area, which caused water levels in the Stillaguamish River to rise up to a foot and encroach on the search area.
According to weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman, search teams could see some relief in the immediate future.
"The recovery effort finally gets a break from the persistent rain this week," said Erdman. "Only a few hit-or-miss showers, at most, are expected Monday."

March 2014 Tornado Count Well Below Average

Why the Tornado Drought?

Essentially the same pattern responsible for a persistently cold and snowy winter in parts of the U.S. also, for the most part, squashed the threat of severe weather through the first three weeks of March.
A pronounced southward dip in the polar jet stream has frequently driven cold air into the Gulf of Mexico, as a powerful northward diversion of the jet stream has persisted in the eastern Pacific Ocean and western U.S. This is the polar opposite of a pattern which would favor severe weather in the southern states during winter.
As a result, deeper, richer Gulf moisture can't flow northward into the southern U.S. ahead of a strong jet-stream level disturbance. Shallow, meager moisture, with weak instability lends itself to damaging straight-line winds in any severe thunderstorms that have developed, rather than tornadic supercells.
However, history shows that a slow start to the year doesn't signal a quiet period is ahead. Both 2012 and 2013 featured at least 400 less U.S. tornadoes than the 10-year average. Despite that apparent tornado drought, we had the following destructive events:

• Mar. 2-3, 2012: EF4 in Henryville, Ind.; EF3 in West Liberty, Ky.
• May 15, 2013: EF4 in Granbury, Texas
• May 19-20, 2013: EF5 in Moore, Okla.
• May 31, 2013: EF3 in El Reno, Okla.
• Nov, 17, 2013: EF4 in Washington, Ill. 

How long can 2014 stay quiet?

http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/march-tornadoes-may-set-record-low-20140321

Seasonal Arctic summer ice extent still hard to forecast, study says

According to University College London, scientists have analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 years. However, forecasts are not so accurate when sea ice conditions are unusually higher or lower compared to this trend.

For the full article: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140327123648.htm 

Warming climate may spread drying to a third of earth: Heat, not just rainfall, plays into new projections

According to the Earth Institute at Columbia University, a new study estimates that 12 percent of land will be subject to drought by 2100 through rainfall changes alone; but the drying will spread to 30 percent of land if higher evaporation rates are considered. An increase in evaporative drying means that even regions expected to get more rain, including important wheat, corn and rice belts in the western United States and southeastern China, will be at risk of drought.

For the full article: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140331144149.htm

Stronger Storms and Hurricanes

Climate change will cause storms, hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intense.

Scientific research indicates that climate change will cause hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intense — lasting longer, unleashing stronger winds, and causing more damage to coastal ecosystems and communities.

Scientists point to higher ocean temperatures as the main culprit, since hurricanes and tropical storms get their energy from warm water. As sea surface temperatures rise, developing storms will contain more energy.

At the same time, other factors such as rising sea levels, disappearing wetlands, and increased coastal development threaten to intensify the damage caused by hurricanes and tropical storms.

http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/urgentissues/global-warming-climate-change/threats-impacts/stronger-storms.xml

Threats and Impacts of Climate Change

Climate change is already beginning to transform life on Earth. Around the globe, seasons are shifting, temperatures are climbing and sea levels are rising. And meanwhile, our planet must still supply us – and all living things – with air, water, food and safe places to live.

Rising temperatures are changing weather and vegetation patterns across the globe, forcing animal species to migrate to new, cooler areas in order to survive.

The rapid nature of climate change is likely to exceed the ability of many species to migrate or adjust. Experts predict that one-fourth of Earth’s species will be headed for extinction by 2050 if the warming trend continues at its current rate.

http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/urgentissues/global-warming-climate-change/threats-impacts/wildlife-at-risk.xml

Temperature Extremes

According to AccuWeather Long Range Weather Expert Paul Pastelok, "We expect a southward dip in steering-level winds to occur much of the time over a large part of the Midwest to the Eastern states during March and the first part of April." This dip of strong winds high in the atmosphere, known as a jet stream trough, will generally keep warm, moist air at bay from near the Mississippi River to the Atlantic coast. Thunderstorms are fueled by rising warm, moist air. As a general rule, the lower the temperature near the ground, the lower the risk for tornadoes and violent thunderstorms."This year, the ground is colder, the Great Lakes have an extensive amount of ice and the Gulf of Mexico waters are starting off colder than average," Pastelok said. "All of these can have a negative impact on temperatures in the lower atmosphere."
Over much of the Southeast, Midwest and Northeast, the tornado risk will be lower than average early on due to the colder-than-average environment expected.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/spring-severe-weather-forecast-2014/24012981

Flash Flooding Swamps Parts of Louisiana

Thunderstorms with torrential rain hit the northern gulf coast on Friday, causing major flooding in parts of 4 different states. 

"Hardest hit was Wilkinson County, Miss. where 6 to 8 inches of rain flooded more than 40 homes, 16 apartments, and many roads, according to the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency. Another two structures were flooded in Amite County, Miss.

Street flooding was also reported in parts of the New Orleans and Pensacola, Fla. metro areas. Pensacola picked up 2.35 inches of rain in less than an hour just before noon Friday. According to the National Weather Service in Mobile, Ala., Pensacola picked up a total of 3.97 inches of rain on Friday, setting a new record daily maximum rainfall total and smashing the old record of 2.65 inches set in 1886."

Spring Snow?

Spring is here and it seems like snow does not want to leave the Northern Plains. Although, April is almost here and summer is just one month away, there is a snowstorm threatining the Northern Plains and the Northern Great Lakes. In some parts of the Northern Plains Blizzard watches have been issued. The snowstorm will begin on Sunday in parts of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado, Idaho and Montana. On Monday, the storm will proceed on to parts of the Dakotas with heavy snow, later spreading into parts of northern Minnesota. Blizzard conditions are possible in Minnesota. Tuesday snow will be lingering and diminishing late in the day in the northern Great Lakes.

   http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/midwest-winter-storm-forecast-march-ends-lion-april-20140328

Northeast Faces Flood Threat, Interior Snow and Ice

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rain-mild-weather-to-bring-flo/24980577

While snow and ice threaten to cause treacherous travel across the interior, flooding will threaten other parts of the Northeast through the rest of this weekend.

According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "Parts of upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania and New England can receive a few inches of rain this weekend."

A slow-moving storm, the second of two systems since Friday, will continue to roll through the area through Sunday.

"There is a substantial amount of snow on the ground in the northern reaches of the Northeast," Abrams said.

While some of the snow will melt with few problems, where ice breaks loose and then jams up on area streams and rivers, there is greater risk for flooding.

RELATED:
El Niño, May Tame Atlantic Hurricanes, Bring Beneficial Rain to California
Flood Watches, Warnings and Advisories
AccuWeather.com Snowfall Forecast Map

"The combination of a couple of inches of rainfall and several inches of water locked up in snow and ice can unleash a half a foot of water onto areas along small streams that then feed into rivers," Abrams said.

Flooding along some small streams is likely this weekend, along with significant rises possible in the following days along some of the major rivers including the Susquehanna, Delaware, Chenango, Connecticut, Mohawk, Walloomsac, Merrimack, Kennebec and Penobscot.

Generally the larger the river, the longer it takes for high water to cycle through.

The heaviest rain will pour down through Saturday night across the Northeast, then will be centered along the northern New England coast and southern Nova Scotia on Sunday. However, periods of rain and drizzle will keep the rest of the Northeast dreary on Sunday.

Some snow or a wintry mix will fall over some of the northern tier areas and highest elevations of the central Appalachians with the storm. This precipitation will tend to slow the runoff.

While there will be pockets of ice in the pink mix area, the greatest threat for an icy mix exists across Maine and southern New Brunswick.

Motorists should prepare for hazardous travel, especially where the snow and ice occurs at night and falls heavily during the day.

Slushy areas around the eastern Great Lakes and central Appalachians may also turn icy Saturday night as temperatures dip below freezing.

After the winter storm departs, the thaw will continue, resume or expand across northern New England during the upcoming week, keeping some streams and rivers running high.

Temperatures are forecast to reach the 40s and 50s in the northern tier states of the Northeast next week.

Tropical Cyclone Hellen Approaches Madagascar

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-development-expected/24984213

A low pressure area centered over the Mozambique Channel has organized into Tropical Cyclone Hellen (21S) Friday afternoon, EDT, as it drifts slowly southeastward paralleling the coast of Mozambique.

Hellen started as a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern third of Mozambique earlier this week, but recently entered an environment favorable for tropical development once it formed a low-level center of circulation and progressed over open water.

The cyclone is expected to strengthen over the Mozambique Channel as it continues slowly southeastward through the next 24-48 hours, progressing just south of the islands of Comorros and Mayotte before clipping the west coast of Madagascar late Sunday night EDT. The storm is currently expected to reach maximum strength of 80 mph, equivalent to category one hurricane strength in the Western Hemisphere, over open water early Sunday morning EDT.

The center of the storm is expected to stay over water, as a ridge of high pressure building over Madagascar forces most of the storm to stay over the Mozambique Channel. This ridge will force Hellen in a more westerly direction starting Sunday night or Monday. The interaction with land and the drier air associated with the high pressure area should act to weaken the system before it reaches the coast of Mozambique toward the middle of next week.

Even if Hellen does not make landfall, it may still bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the northwest portion of Madagascar Saturday night and Sunday that can result in flooding and mudslides, along with downed trees and power lines.

Updated by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Alan Reppert

Northeast Faces Flood Threat, Interior Snow and Ice

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rain-mild-weather-to-bring-flo/24980577

While snow and ice threaten to cause treacherous travel across the interior, flooding will threaten other parts of the Northeast through the rest of this weekend.

According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "Parts of upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania and New England can receive a few inches of rain this weekend."

A slow-moving storm, the second of two systems since Friday, will continue to roll through the area through Sunday.

"There is a substantial amount of snow on the ground in the northern reaches of the Northeast," Abrams said.

While some of the snow will melt with few problems, where ice breaks loose and then jams up on area streams and rivers, there is greater risk for flooding.

RELATED:
El Niño, May Tame Atlantic Hurricanes, Bring Beneficial Rain to California
Flood Watches, Warnings and Advisories
AccuWeather.com Snowfall Forecast Map

"The combination of a couple of inches of rainfall and several inches of water locked up in snow and ice can unleash a half a foot of water onto areas along small streams that then feed into rivers," Abrams said.

Flooding along some small streams is likely this weekend, along with significant rises possible in the following days along some of the major rivers including the Susquehanna, Delaware, Chenango, Connecticut, Mohawk, Walloomsac, Merrimack, Kennebec and Penobscot.

Generally the larger the river, the longer it takes for high water to cycle through.

The heaviest rain will pour down through Saturday night across the Northeast, then will be centered along the northern New England coast and southern Nova Scotia on Sunday. However, periods of rain and drizzle will keep the rest of the Northeast dreary on Sunday.

Some snow or a wintry mix will fall over some of the northern tier areas and highest elevations of the central Appalachians with the storm. This precipitation will tend to slow the runoff.

While there will be pockets of ice in the pink mix area, the greatest threat for an icy mix exists across Maine and southern New Brunswick.

Motorists should prepare for hazardous travel, especially where the snow and ice occurs at night and falls heavily during the day.

Slushy areas around the eastern Great Lakes and central Appalachians may also turn icy Saturday night as temperatures dip below freezing.

After the winter storm departs, the thaw will continue, resume or expand across northern New England during the upcoming week, keeping some streams and rivers running high.

Temperatures are forecast to reach the 40s and 50s in the northern tier states of the Northeast next week.

El Nino May Tame Atlantic Hurricanes, Bring Beneficial Rain to California

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-impact-will-the-coming-el/24864631

There are indications that an El Niño is on the way for the middle and latter parts of 2014. The phenomenon may impact the weather in portions of the United States, starting this summer.

Fluctuations in the sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific Ocean have been observed and recorded for approximately the past 60 years. These fluctuations are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO. When the waters are cooler than average for a several-month period, the event is called La Niña. Opposingly, when the waters are warmer than average over several months, the event is called El Niño.

According to AccuWeather Long Range Forecaster Mark Paquette, "We are confident that an El Niño is in the early stages of developing and may reach moderate strength moving forward into mid- to late summer of 2014."

While El Niño will not have an impact on this spring and summer's severe weather, it may come on early enough and strong enough to have impact on the upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific.

Disruptive winds, known as wind shear, often develop off the Atlantic coast of the United States and sweep over a large part of the basin during El Niño.

"It is possible that a budding El Niño and developing wind shear may truncate the number of hurricanes originating from near the west coast of Africa during the middle and latter part of the season," Paquette said.

RELATED:
El Niño, La Niña Influence on Hurricane Seasons
Long Range Forecasting Takes More Than a Crystal Ball
Spring 2014 Severe Weather Outlook

El Niño is generally not a major player in determining the number and strength of storms that originate over the Gulf of Mexico and much of the Caribbean.

While the number of storms tends to be lower in the Atlantic during an El Niño, it is not uncommon for the Eastern Pacific to have a very active hurricane season.

An El Niño may also enhance the summer monsoon over the Four Corners region of the Southwest as tropical moisture funnels in from the Eastern Pacific. Whether monsoon moisture is enhanced over drought-stricken California is less certain at this time, Paquette said.

However, there is some hope for rain later in the year that could impact the California drought, which has been weighing heavily on ranchers.

The greatest effects on the weather pattern in the Lower 48 states, including California, occur during the cold season.

"As far as impact on next winter, it is too early in the game to make a call one way or another, but some El Niño patterns in the past [1997-98] have produced significant storms in California," Paquette said.

El Niño winters are noted for wet and stormy conditions in the South and less-frequent, less-severe cold episodes in the Northern states.

The pattern has been known to bring outbreaks of severe weather in the South during the winter.

There is a tendency toward dry conditions in the Northwest and North Central states during an El Niño winter.

The strength of an El Niño can also have significant outcome of the weather pattern.

A strong El Niño can shift the winter storm track off the coast of the Northeast. A weak to moderate El Niño can allow the storm track to be near the coast.

Long-range weather forecasts are challenging, as many variables have to come together. Forecasts for the long range are typically described in overall departures from normal over a seasonal period rather than in daily extremes: wetter or drier than average and colder or warmer than average for a several-week to a several-month period.

AccuWeather will be releasing its summer 2014 outlook in late April along with a preliminary peek at the upcoming hurricane season.

Blizzard to Close Out March Across the Plains

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-to-end-march/25018036

March will end with a blizzard threatening to halt travel and severely disrupt daily routines across the northern Plains on Monday.

The blizzard will target South Dakota, southern North Dakota and western Minnesota late Sunday night through Monday.

Rapid City, Pierre and Aberdeen, S.D., Fargo and Bismarck, N.D., and Ortonville, Minn., lie within this zone.

For Rapid City, the blizzard is in the forecast despite the weekend starting with temperatures soaring to around 70 F.

Minneapolis should narrowly escape the worst of the blizzard unless the storm tracks slightly to the south. Even given the current track of the storm, the city will still be subject to some snow and slick travel Monday night.

The combination of a storm spreading welcome rain and mountain snow into California this weekend and arctic air plunging southward will cause the blizzard to unfold across the northern Plains.

This blizzard will be short-lived--in terms of accompanying strong winds, not heavy snow--since the storm will weaken as it heads into central Ontario for the first day of April.

Even though true blizzard conditions will not be met across northern Minnesota and central Ontario, heavy snow and reduced visibility are still expected.

Some rain will precede the snow in many communities but will not be a sign that the blizzard is failing to materialize.

RELATED:
AccuWeather.com Winter Weather Center
Interactive North Central Regional Radar
Researchers Find Five Previously Undetected Greenhouse Gases

Howling winds will make measuring the snow very difficult. Winds during the height of the storm will gust to around 45 mph, leading to severe blowing and drifting snow and blinding conditions.

Travel will become extremely dangerous and nearly impossible for a time. Officials may be forced to close lengthy stretches of highways and interstates. Interstates 29, 35, 90 and 94 could be among such roads.

Motorists attempting to travel during the blizzard run the risk of becoming stranded for a time. Residents should prepare for school and other activities to be canceled.

In the wake of the blizzard, the northern Plains will continue to be monitored for more snow events despite the calendar being flipped to April.

The chance for a bit of snow will return Wednesday. If a storm tracks far enough to the north, steadier snow may follow for later in the week.

Severe Weather in Northern California Produces Hail, Tornado Sighting

http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/severe-weather-northern-california-produces-hail-tornado-sighting-20140326

A potent upper-level system moved through Northern California Wednesday evening, producing thunderstorms with hail and at least two confirmed tornadoes.

A storm survey found EF1 damage near Willows, Calif. along a roughly one-quarter mile long path, with damage to outbuildings and almond orchards.

An EF0 tornado was confirmed near Roseville in Placer County. The tornado was just 10 to 20 yards wide and was on the ground for 200 to 300 yards. Some minor damage was reported.

(MORE: Enhanced-Fujita Scale)

Another tornado was reported at around 5:44 p.m. east of Interstate 5 near Chico, Calif. Significant amounts of hail were also reported.

According to weather.com meteorologist Nick Wiltgen, the disturbance that produced the tornadoes in California is the same one that will help to trigger severe weather for parts of the Plains and South through Saturday.

Below is a round-up of the latest reports on the storm from social media.

Midwest Winter Storm May End March With A Roar

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/midwest-winter-storm-forecast-march-ends-lion-april-20140328

• Snowstorm threat: Northern Plains to Northern Great Lakes

• Sunday night - Tuesday

• Blizzard conditions possible 

Winter Storm/Blizzard Alerts

Monday's Forecast

Tuesday's Forecast

We're about to close the book on March and welcome the month of April. One month closer to summer. However, in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, snowstorms are very much a part of early spring. 

Yes, a winter storm is on the table early in the upcoming week. In fact, blizzard watches have been issued for parts of Northern Plains in advance of this next storm. Let's break down what we know and what is still uncertain, to help you plan for this potential storm.

More confident: Timing

• Sunday: Snow mainly over the Rockies, including parts of Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Idaho and Montana.
• Sunday night: Snow spreads out of the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains, with increasing east to northeast winds.
• Monday: Snow, likely heavy, will continue in parts of the Dakotas and spread into parts of northern Minnesota, with blizzard conditions possible. Rain may change to snow Monday night farther south in the Upper Mississippi Valley, including the Twin Cities.
• Tuesday: Lingering snow and some wind, diminishing late in the day in the northern Great Lakes.

More confident: Snow, wind impacts

• Snowfall potential: 6"+ snow possible from the northern High Plains to northern Minnesota. Parts of northern Minnesota and the Dakotas may see a foot or more snow.
• Blizzard potential: The combination of high pressure over the Canadian Prairies and moderately strong low pressure tracking from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes will likely produce blizzard or near-blizzard conditions in parts of the Dakotas and parts of western and northern Minnesota Monday and Monday night, possibly into early Tuesday.
• Travel impact: Road closures are possible along stretches of I-29, I-94 and I-90 in the Dakotas and western Minnesota particularly Monday and Monday night. Secondary roads would quickly become impassable due to blowing and drifting snow.
• Cities: Aberdeen, S.D. | Duluth, Minn. | Fargo, N.D. | Rapid City, S.D.

Still uncertain: Track of the low, ice threats

• Our numerical forecast guidance is not in sync on the exact path of the surface low, which is typical this far out from a winter storm.
• This would affect the location of the heavy snow swath and would determine whether more northern locations see more rain initially as the storm pulls into the Upper Midwest Monday.
• It's also uncertain if enough cold air near the surface may hang in to allow a band of freezing rain to develop from parts of Minnesota to the U.P. of Michigan.
• Potential cities impacted: Duluth | Mpls./St. Paul | Fargo, N.D. | Rapid City, S.D.

(MORE: 10 Cities Winter Spared | 10 Worst Winter Cities)

Check back with weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this upcoming storm.

Missouri Severe Weather: Tornadoes Confirmed, Homes Damaged in Several Cities

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/missouri-reported-tornado-damage-20140327

Thunderstorms, hail and at least four tornadoes left a line of damage in northern Missouri and Louisiana Thursday evening.

(MORE: Learn About the Enhanced Fujita Scale)

Tornado reports (red icons) in northern Missouri and southern Iowa on Mar. 27, 2014. (Credit: NOAA/SPC)

The Associated Press reports at least four homes were damaged by a tornado around Trenton, Mo. just after 4 p.m. CT. According to a Grundy County Emergency Manager, one home had its walls heavily damaged and its roof removed just south of Tindall, Mo.

About 40 minutes earlier, a tornado near Jameson, Mo. destroyed a home and outbuilding, and downed seven power poles across a highway. The National Weather Service in Kansas City confirmed that four tornadoes touched down in the event in Missouri and Louisiana:

• An EF1 with maximum winds of 95 mph that tracked from just east of Weatherby to an area southwest of Jameson.
• An EF2 that was in progress north of Jameson, packing winds as high as 130 mph.
• An EF2 with winds as high as 120 mph that left homes damaged near Tindall.
• An EF1 with winds as high as 110 mph that damaged homes and felled trees in Ball, Louisiana.

"While only a small fraction of these storms have produced funnel clouds and tornadoes, the majority of them dumped hail throughout extreme eastern Kansas and Missouri," explained weather.com meteorologist Chrissy Warrilow. Hail up to two inches in diameter pelted the south and east sides of the Kansas City metro, slightly larger than golf-ball size.

(PHOTOS: Inside a Hailstone | Underrated Danger)

Below we have some photos of Thursday's storm damage from social media.

Possible Tornado Damage Reported Near Raleigh, N.C.

http://www.weather.com/safety/thunderstorms/north-carolina-tornadoes-20140329

A severe thunderstorm produced numerous funnel clouds Saturday night, and produced possible tornado damage in North Carolina.

(MORE: Severe Weather Tracker)

Funnel clouds were spotted around Garner, N.C., just south of Raleigh Saturday evening. Damage was reported in a Garner subdivision. Unconfirmed reports suggest that a tornado touched down.

"The thunderstorm is part of a larger low pressure system moving through the Southeast and into the Northeast this weekend," said weather.com meteorologist Chrissy Warrilow.

"Enough wind shear - a property in which winds change speed and direction from the surface of the ground to high in the atmosphere - was strong enough to produce a supercell thunderstorm Saturday night."

(MORE: Raleigh, N.C. Current Radar | Current Severe Alerts)

The storm moved between interstate 40 and downtown Garner.

Below are your posts from social media:

Severe Weather Diminishes, But Heavy Rain Threat Continues in the East

http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/severe-weather-tracker-page

An intensifying low pressure system will bring a threat of flash flooding and heavy rain to the East this weekend.

Current Radar

• Larger Interactive Radar

Severe threat: After producing possible tornado damage in North Carolina and funnel clouds in California on Saturday, the severe threat looks to significantly diminish for much of the country on Sunday. The next widespread chance of severe storms is expected to start during the middle part of next week in the central states. Click here to see the daily details.

Heavy rain threat: On the northern end of the storm system, moderate to heavy rainfall will soak parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast into Sunday. Some flooding is possible on small streams and in urban or poor drainage locations. Flood watches are posted across parts of the region.

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All tornado warnings, along with other relevant tweets from The Weather Channel and local National Weather Service offices in current threat areas, will appear here.  

Information updates automatically; no need to reload or refresh your browser. Time stamps on the left are in Eastern time; subtract one hour for Central time and two hours for Mountain time. For complete warning information and radar links, look below our live ticker.

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See the latest watches and warnings across the nation using our clickable severe weather alerts map.

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Track the Storms in Your Area

Track the severe thunderstorms using ourinteractive radar map. 

You can also see how much rain has fallen by clicking on the 24-hour rainfall interactive map.

TOR:CON

Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes, rates your tornado risk today on a scale of 1 to 10.  Find out if there's a heightened risk where you live.

- View TOR:CON index

(MORE:  TOR:CON index explained)

Typical Tornado Risk

Severe Weather Expert Dr. Greg Forbes shows you what time of year and in what locations the tornado risk peaks.  Click on the links below to learn more about tornado climatology.

- Tornado risk by month

- City specific tornado histories

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Find out more here.