Spring officially begins at 12:57 p.m. ET on Thursday. Unfortunately, sometimes the atmosphere doesn't play along and provide instant relief from winter's icy grip.
For example, in 2013 we had four significant winter storms affect parts of the northern Rockies, Plains and Midwest in April alone. In addition, temperatures were much below average across most of those regions.
So, the big question is how the start of spring is shaping up for 2014?
Chilly Start to Spring
NOAA Temperature Outlook
For those of you frustrated by the cold that we've seen during the past several months in the Midwest and parts of the East, the news is not good. The latest 6- to 10-day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center branch of NOAA shows that there is a high probability of below-average temperatures in its forecast valid for March 24 to March 28, 2014 (shown right).
Sunday's Highs
Monday's Highs
That said, the actual first day of spring (Thursday) and Friday will see temperatures near or even above average in the Midwest, Plains and East.
Some cities in the Plains from North Dakota to the Texas Panhandle will be up to 15 degrees above average on Thursday. On Friday, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average from southwest Texas to central Oklahoma and the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Thereafter, the next cold front charges southeast and spreads another round of below-average temperatures through all states east of the Rockies this weekend into Monday. Some locations will be 10 to 20 degrees below late-March averages.
Computer model guidance shows that another reinforcing surge of cold air will arrive in the Midwest and East during the early to middle part of next week.
The culprit for the persistently cold weather this winter, now lasting into the start of spring, is a tendency for the jet stream to dip southward repeatedly to the east of the Rockies. This has allowed bouts of Arctic air to pour into the central and eastern United States.
With the jet stream poking northward to the west of the Rockies, residents of California and the Southwest have seen persistently mild temperatures this winter. More of the same is expected there, with high probabilities of above-average warmth forecast to start the spring.
Winter Storm Next Week?
Although we are very confident in the forecast for below-average temperatures this weekend into next week, we have much less confidence in whether a storm system will tap into this cold air and produce significant winter weather in the East.
While still nearly a week away, some computer models have suggested at times in the last day or so that there is a possibility of a strong coastal storm with wind, rain and/or snow affecting portions of the Eastern Seaboard as this second surge of cold air arrives. It is currently far too early to speculate on any details beyond that. In fact, it's very possible that there ends up being no significant storm at all.
see this story at: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/spring-arrives-will-it-feel-it-20140318
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