Hurricane Season 2013: A year Without a Major Hurricane?

So far this hurricane season, the Atlantic basin has produced nine named storms, two of which have become hurricanes.

2013 Named Storm Tracks

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Based on long-term averages from 1966-2009, the Atlantic has typically seen nine named storms by Oct. 4 and five hurricanes by Oct. 7. As you can see, the 2013 season is fairly close to average when it comes to the number of named storms, but lagging behind in the hurricane category.

Neither of this season's two hurricanes, Humberto and Ingrid, reached major hurricane status, a Category 3 or higher rating on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Since 1851, roughly 75 percent of all the major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have formed during the months of August and September. Given that we've almost made it through September, and are headed for the final two months of the hurricane season, this raises the question of how rare it would be to go an entire season without a major hurricane in the Atlantic.

Last Time Was Nearly Two Decades Ago

Since the satellite era began in 1960, only four years have had no major hurricanes. That's an average of about once every 13 years that we see an Atlantic hurricane season with no majors.

You have to go back almost 20 years to 1994 to find the last time we did not have a major hurricane in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. That hurricane season had only seven named storms and three hurricanes, which is much lower than the long-term seasonal average of 11 named storms and six hurricanes. This was also the last year before the current so-called active era for tropical storms and hurricanes began in 1995.

The other seasons since 1960 with no major hurricanes were 1986, 1972 and 1968.

Atlantic Major Hurricanes

Could 2013 join this small group of years since 1960 with no major hurricanes? While it's possible, we should note that October has produced about 18 percent (57 total) of the known major hurricanes since 1851. Even November has seen the formation of seven major hurricanes since 1851.

So there's still time left in the 2013 season for a major hurricane to form, but the odds get lower and lower the farther you head into October and November.

Of course, tracking statistics on the number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes in a given season is only important for historical record-keeping, what matters most is where they track.

Therefore, it's important to remain prepared for the final two months of the hurricane season. 

Senior meteorologist Stu Ostro (Facebook | Twitter) of The Weather Channel reinforces this point: "On the one hand, the vast majority of hurricanes that hit the U.S. do so prior to October. In the past 50 years, more than 80 percent of them have. On the other hand, that’s not 100 percent, and there have been deadly and destructive ones late in the season, so we need to remain vigilant."

U.S. October and November Hurricane History

Typical Oct. Formation Areas and Tracks

A total of 53 hurricanes have struck the United States in October since 1851. Of these, 16 have been major Category 3 or higher hurricanes. Only three hurricanes have struck the United States in November since 1851.

Hurricane Kate in 1985 was the latest-in-the-season hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. on record, coming onshore a week before Thanksgiving. The latest a major Category 3 or higher hurricane has made a U.S. landfall was the 1921 Tampa hurricane, which hit the west-central coast of Florida on Oct. 25. Wilma from 2005 was the second-latest major hurricane landfall on Oct. 24.

For South Florida, October is actually the month with the most hurricane direct hits. Since 1851, a total of 21 hurricanes have passed within 100 nautical miles of Miami.