Since late August, Tropical Storm Fernand, Tropical Depression Eight and Hurricane Ingrid have all spun up in this area before moving into eastern Mexico. In June, Tropical Depression Two developed near Belize before moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwest Gulf where it strengthened into Tropical Storm Barry. Barry also made landfall in eastern Mexico.
In all, four of the ten Atlantic basin tropical cyclones this season have developed in or near the southwest Gulf.
Now we have our eyes on another area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 95-L by the National Hurricane Center, that is located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
Although the system is currently battling an unfavorable northerly wind flow over the western Gulf, upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for gradual development of the system into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The favorable environment will be due to an area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that is expected to build over the western Gulf.
By this weekend, an approaching southward dip in the jet stream and an associated cold front could help direct tropical moisture from this system towards the U.S. Gulf Coast. This could help enhance rainfall in this region.
At this time, it appears unlikely that an intact tropical depression or tropical storm would get pulled northeastward to the U.S. Gulf Coast by this jet stream dip.
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