An unseasonably strong upper-level trough that cuts off into a closed low in California tonight will bring quite the gambit of weather across the West in the next 24 to 40 hours. There will be everything from heavy storms bringing flash flooding, strong winds and even an isolated tornado to accumulating snowfall.
Strong Storms and Severe Weather:
There are two main time periods of severe weather, the most widespread being Saturday into Saturday night.
Late this afternoon and evening, scattered locally strong storms are likely to develop well ahead of the main trough. These will occur over parts of southeastern California and western Arizona north into southern Nevada, including the Las Vegas area, into western Utah. A surge of very moist air is being drawn north along the Colorado River as this forecast from the HRRR RAP shows.
This moisture along with heating of the day and some lift from the approaching trough will spark scattered thunderstorms. The biggest threat is from locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rain causing flash flooding.
Tomorrow and tomorrow night, more widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely. A cold, upper-level low will be in Central California.
East of it a strong lower- and middle-level jet stream will provide tremendous lift and moisture will be abundant. A band of heavy showers and thunderstorms is likely, first starting near the Colorado River north into eastern Nevada. This band then moves east across Arizona and Utah through the day into Saturday night. Thunderstorms will cause locally damaging winds and heavy rain that will cause local flooding problems. In addition, there is the chance for an isolated tornado. Here is the total amount of rainfall as predicted by the GFS model from Friday through the day Sunday.
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