Friday, December 12, 2014

Southern Blogs

We are going into a pattern where the southern jet will become active with storms over the next two weeks. The question becomes, how much cold air can these storms tap to produce snow. The map below is the ECMWF control run showing the snow accumulation through 360 hours. While the snowfall tends to be overblown on the ECMWF model, it does indicate that the storms can tap some of the cold air that will be around. This is not a cold weather pattern because the arctic air will be confined to northern Canada through much of December. It would appear that after the holidays the arctic air returns.
In the near term...
Light to moderate snow will continue into tonight but should wind down by Thursday morning. The heaviest snows will be across western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania.
Most areas will get 1-3 inches of snow.
The big story will be the heavy rains, flooding and mudslides across California through Friday. As you can see by the rainfall map, 6 inches of rain will fall which is a lot given the dry conditions. There will be serious flooding in some locations of central California.

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