Sunday, October 13, 2019

Hurricane Season Is Not Over Yet: Multiple Areas Are Being Monitored for Tropical Development in the Week Ahead


The Atlantic hurricane season typically begins to quiet down the deeper we head into October, but a few areas in the Atlantic Basin are now being monitored for development in the week ahead – a reminder that the hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.A vigorous tropical wave, accompanied by a well-defined low-pressure system, has emerged over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean after exiting the western coast of Africa on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form within the next few days as the disturbance moves northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has been dubbed Invest 94L by the NHC. Invest is a naming convention used by meteorologists to identify areas that are under investigation for possible tropical development.

Eastern Pacific Also Bears Watching

A broad area of low pressure a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
The NHC has given this system a medium chance of development, and a tropical depression could form by Sunday night. However, it's predicted to move over cooler waters and run into stronger upper-level winds by Monday, a combination of factors which could cause it to weaken or dissipate.
Regardless of development, this system is forecast to produce heavy rain across the southern Baja California Peninsula into Monday.
Another broad area of low pressure off the Pacific coast of Central America has been highlighted by the NHC for a high chance of development in the next five days. It's currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression could form by midweek as it moves west-northwestward just off the southeastern coast of Mexico.
Depending how close this second system tracks in relation to Mexico's coast, locally heavy rain and gusty winds could be a threat along parts of the coastline in the week ahead.

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