Article:
Warming in Europe Raises Risks of Tropical Diseases
Link:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warming-in-europe-raises-risks-of-tropical-diseases-17967
Dengue fever is already a hazard for 2.5 billion people in humid tropical regions, and 50-100 million people a year are infected by the mosquito-borne disease. It puts 500,000 of them in hospital each year, and kills around 12,000 − many of them children. And there is still no widely effective vaccine.
Since Europe will get warmer as greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere rise, conditions for the carrier mosquito will become more inviting.
Paul Hunter, clinical professor at the Norwich Medical School at the University of East Anglia in the UK, reports with colleagues, in the journal BMC Public Health, that in their mathematical model of disease spread, the Mediterranean and Adriatic coasts and the Po Valley and surrounding areas in northeast Italy emerged as likely breeding grounds for the carrier mosquito Aedes aegypti and the virus it can transmit…
Paul Hunter, clinical professor at the Norwich Medical School at the University of East Anglia in the UK, reports with colleagues, in the journal BMC Public Health, that in their mathematical model of disease spread, the Mediterranean and Adriatic coasts and the Po Valley and surrounding areas in northeast Italy emerged as likely breeding grounds for the carrier mosquito Aedes aegypti and the virus it can transmit…
Rate of Infection
Their findings were that the rate of infection by the virus, in the long term, could go from two per 100,000 inhabitants to 10 per 100,000 in some places, with the biggest risks being in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic, and in Italy’s northeast.
The authors acknowledge that their study is incomplete, and at a disadvantage. The temperature variation between winter and summer in Mexico is less dramatic than it is in Europe, and the mosquito is less likely to make it through a north European winter.
The authors acknowledge that their study is incomplete, and at a disadvantage. The temperature variation between winter and summer in Mexico is less dramatic than it is in Europe, and the mosquito is less likely to make it through a north European winter.
This kind of research is precautionary − a preliminary look at what could happen. But it does provide an early warning of potential hazards ahead.
“The exact incidence of dengue fever is dependent on several other factors, some of which we were unable to model at this stage,” Prof. Hunter said.
“Nevertheless, public health agencies in high-risk areas need to plan, implement and evaluate effective reporting of mosquito populations and clinical surveillance by local doctors. Work should be carried out to improve awareness among health practitioners and the general public of the increased risk.”
“The exact incidence of dengue fever is dependent on several other factors, some of which we were unable to model at this stage,” Prof. Hunter said.
“Nevertheless, public health agencies in high-risk areas need to plan, implement and evaluate effective reporting of mosquito populations and clinical surveillance by local doctors. Work should be carried out to improve awareness among health practitioners and the general public of the increased risk.”
Mosquito netting is put up to help prevent Dengue fever and other mosquito-borne diseases.
Credit: ACEI Cheung/flickr
Credit: ACEI Cheung/flickr
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