Sean Breslin
Published: October 19, 2015
A strong El Niño may raise the chances for an above-average tornado season this winter in Florida, according to meteorologists at the National Weather Service.
The Tallahassee office of the NWS says El Niño is known to push severe weather south in the winter, which leaves central and southern Florida in the bull's-eye. Upon studying El Niño years and otherwise, the NWS found a higher likelihood of tornadoes from November through April than with any other pattern.
"There have been double the number of EF1 or stronger tornadoes associated with past strong El Niños," meteorologist Robert Molleda told the Orlando Sentinel. "In many cases the winds are greater than 100 mph. These are the stronger, more damaging tornadoes."
It's important to note that El Niño doesn't actually create severe weather; the pattern simply helps set the stage for an increase in damaging storms, Molleda said.
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This diagram shows the shift south in severe weather potential during an El Niño year, bringing the threat to central and southern Florida.(Image via NWS)
The period from November 1997 through April 1998, influenced by one of the strongest El Niño events in recent memory, produced 43 tornadoes in Florida, which the NWS says was the worst year since records began. Of those 43 twisters, seven were at least F3 strength (this was before the Enhanced Fujita Scale was adopted).
In February 1998, a tornado killed 42 people, injured 260 and destroyed hundreds of homes. Before that winter, forecasters issued a similar warning to the one issued this week by the NWS.
These tornadoes frequently occur at night when most are asleep, adding to the pattern's danger, NWS-Tallahassee also said.
It's not guaranteed, however, that this winter will see increased tornadoes. As the Orlando Sentinel notes, during the El Niño years of 1965-66 and 1972-73, there wasn't an increase in the number of tornadoes that hit the Sunshine State.
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