Seeking Clarity on Terrible Tornadoes in a Changing Climate
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
As I explained earlier this week, questions related to any impact of human-driven global warming on tornadoes, while important, have almost no bearing on the challenge of reducing human vulnerability to these killer storms. The focus on the ground in Oklahoma, of course, will for years to come be on recovery and rebuilding — hopefully with more attention across the region to developing policies and practices that cut losses the next time. (With this in mind, please read John Schwartz’s great feature, “Why No Safe Room to Run To? Cost and Plains Culture.”)
The vulnerability is almost entirely the result of fast-paced, cost-cutting development patterns in tornado hot zones, and even if there were a greenhouse-tornado connection, actions that constrain greenhouse-gas emissions, while wise in the long run, would not have a substantial influence on climate patterns for decades because of inertia in the climate system.
Some climate scientists see compelling arguments for accumulating heat and added water vapor fueling the kinds of turbulent storms that spawn tornadoes. But a half century of observations in the United States show no change in tornado frequency and a declining frequency of strong tornadoes. [Update | The meteorological conditions that shaped events in recent daysare nicely explored by Henry Fountain of The Times.]
Does any of this mean global warming is not a serious problem? No.
It just means assertions that all weird bad weather is, in essence, our fault are not grounded in science and, as a result, end upempowering those whose prime interest appears to to be sustaining the fossil fuel era as long as possible. I was glad to see the green blog Grist acknowledge as much.
On Tuesday, I sent the following query to a range of climate scientists and other researchers focused on extreme weather and climate change:
The climate community did a great service to the country in 2006 in putting out a joint statement [from some leading researchers] on the enormous human vulnerability in coastal zones to hurricanes — setting aside questions about the role of greenhouse-driven warming in changing hurricane patterns….In this 2011 post I proposed that climate/weather/tornado experts do a similar statement for Tornado Alley.I’d love to see a similar statement now from meteorologists, climatologists and other specialists studying trends in tornado zones. Any takers?
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