El Nino Alert by Australia Signals Droughts to Floods

Australia issued an El Nino alert on expectations the weather-altering pattern will probably develop as early as July, potentially bringing drought across the Asia-Pacific region and heavier-than-usual rains to South America.
The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today, citing large anomalies below the surface and increasingly warm surface temperatures. Models suggested that the likelihood of an event is at least 70 percent, the government forecaster said.
El Ninos can roil agricultural markets worldwide as farmers contend with drought or too much rain, while also curbing the incidence of Atlantic hurricanes. Forecasters from the U.S. to the United Nations have warned an event may happen this year, and ABN Amro Group NV said confirmation could trigger support for coffee, sugar and cocoa prices.
“This further reinforces the view that there is a high likelihood of El Nino developing by July,” Tracey Allen, an analyst at Rabobank International, said in a telephone interview today. Cane may be exposed to drier-than-normal weather, while palm oil, wheat on the east coast of Australia and cocoa to some extent may also be affected, she said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/el-nino-alert-issued-by-australia-as-event-seen-as-soon-as-july.html