Cyclone Nilofar Targets India's Gujarat State, Southern Pakistan

Nilofar: Forecast Path

Cyclone Nilofar has intensified to the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane in the Arabian Sea, about 700 miles south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.

Nilofar is now tracking toward the north or north-northwest under the steering influence of an upper-level high pressure system centered over southern India. During this time, Nilofar will be experiencing minimal wind shear and is, therefore, expected to intensify to a Category 3 equivalent tropical cyclone.
By late Wednesday, Nilofar will curl sharply east-northeast and accelerate, as upper-level jet stream winds grab hold of the cyclone. On this track, Nilofar is likely to remain well east of the Arabian Peninsula.

These jet stream winds will impart increasing vertical wind shear, and drier air may also work into the cyclone. Both of these factors are expected to weaken Nilofar by the time it makes landfall somewhere along the coast of India's Gujarat state or extreme southeast Pakistan Saturday, local time. At the time of landfall, Nilofar is expected to be the strength of a mid-grade tropical storm.



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