The early outlook released April 9 calls for seven named storms, including three hurricanes, one of which is predicted to attain major hurricane status (Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
This is well below the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The outlook, headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach in consultation with long-time hurricane expert Dr. William Gray, is based on a combination of 29 years of statistical predictors, combined with analog seasons exhibiting similar features of sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans.
Here are four questions about this outlook and what it means for you.
Q: Does this mean a less destructive season?
There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season."It is important to note that our - The Weather Channel - forecasts are for the total number of storms that may occur anywhere within the Atlantic Ocean, and do not attempt to predict the number of storms that will make landfall in the U.S.," said Dr. Peter Neilley, vice president of Global Forecasting Services at WSI.
The 2014 season featured the fewest number of named storms in 17 years (eight storms), but also featured the strongest landfalling hurricane in the mainland U.S. in six years (Hurricane Arthur on the Outer Banks), and featured two back-to-back hurricane hits on the tiny archipelago of Bermuda (Fay, then Gonzalo).
Furthermore, six of those eight storms became hurricanes, and Gonzalo was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Igor in 2010.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-season-outlook-atlantic-2015-el-nino
Hurricanes From Space - Satellite Imagery
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